Thursday, January 31, 2008

Grey Market - Shriram EPC, IRB Infrastructure, Reliance Power

 Future Capital Holding 765 340 to 350


Reliance Power 450 150 to 160


Emaar MGF 610 to 690 90 to 100


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 Discount


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 8 to 10


KNR Construction 170 to 180 Discount


Onmobile Global 425 to 450 35 to 40


Bang Overseas 200 to 207 30 to 35


Shriram EPC 290 to 330 25 to 30


IRB Infra 185 to 220 60 to 65

Reliance Power Allotment Status

 Reliance Power Allotment Status can be checked here today evening or tomorrow (Jan 31 or Feb 1 )

Shriram EPC IPO Analysis and Recommendation

Investors with a high-risk appetite and a two-three year investment horizon can consider investing in the initial public offering of Shriram EPC (SEPC). However, we would be more comfortable if the offer is priced at the lower end of the price band.

Given the company's wide-spread exposure to businesses such as renewable energy, process & metallurgy and municipal services, SEPC appears well set to leverage on the strong demand for both its product as well as service offerings.
Valuation

Foray into higher-capacity wind turbine generators, bio-ethanol plants and increasing bias towards execution of turnkey projects also suggest strong prospects.

However, the offer is expensively priced. In the price band of Rs 290-330 the offer is priced at about 22-25 times the likely FY09 per share earnings.

This is backed by SEPC's presence across high-growth business verticals and its robust order book (about Rs 2,270 crore).
Business verticals

SEPC's business can be broadly classified under two categories — Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects and manufacture/sale/maintenance of wind turbine generators (WTG). The company's EPC business focuses on three segments — renewable energy, process & metallurgy and municipal services.

The renewable energy EPC projects mainly consist of biomass-based power projects, co-generation power projects and bio-ethanol plant projects. In the process and metallurgy EPC projects, SEPC focuses on providing turnkey solutions to sectors such as power, steel and cement. The company typically bids for these projects in consortium with foreign players who provide the technology back up, while SEPC provides for manpower, onsite construction, commissioning and testing services.

It also provides cooling tower and air-pollution control systems through Hamom Shriram, its joint venture company with Hamom group.

Through its municipal services division, SEPC undertakes turnkey projects for water and waste management and executes pipe rehabilitation projects.

The WTG division, apart from manufacturing 250KW-class WTGs, also does installation, commissioning and maintenance of turbine generators. SEPC has formed two joint ventures with Netherlands-based Leitwind to establish presence in high-end WTGs (1.35 MW WTGs). These joint ventures, using Leitner's gearless WTG technology will manufacture and subsequently market and sell these WTGs .

This business may hold potential given the growing demand for windmills and the supply constraints for gearboxes. However, weighed against this, Leitwind's technology is not yet established . SEPC's limited exposure to export market may also pose challenges.

SEPC plans to use the proceeds from this issue for investing in its associate companies, such as Orient Green Power and Leitner Shriram Manufacturing.
Growth drivers

SEPC's foray into providing EPC services for process and metallurgy, given its positioning as a complete engineering solutions provider may help it gain traction in this market.

These projects, which typically enjoy high margins, may also help SEPC better its operation metrics.

Besides, the company's focus towards executing EPC projects in other sectors may also help it diversify and scale up revenues. While so far it had primarily executed EPC projects in the captive power and metallurgy segments, a recent order win worth Rs 570 crore from the cement sector points to broader revenue streams.

The company's unique exposure to various sources of renewable energy also presents significant potential for revenue growth over the long-term. While it is an established player in biomass-based EPC projects, its foray into bio-ethanol is relatively new.

Cracking the bio-ethanol market may take sometime since these projects require a sound technology base and features established overseas players. SEPC may have to partner with global players for sourcing technology.

While finding the right partner may take time, SEPC's partnerships with leading global players in its other business divisions infuse some confidence on this front.

The company's recent order to build a 280 KLPD (kilo litres per day) bio-ethanol plant in Czech Republic in consortium with a leading European player is a case in point.

Further, SEPC's move towards ownership of power generation assets through its associate company, Orient Green Power may also have potential for significant earnings upside over the long-term.

Among other initiatives of SEPC, wastewater management and pipe rehabilitation while insignificant currently, hold good potential.

SEPC's revenue has grown at an annual compounded rate of about 99 per cent over the last two years, albeit on a small base. Earnings, during the same period, grew by about 51 per cent. Profit growth may accelerate significantly if SEPC's entry to high-growth and high-margin segments pays off.
Concerns

While SEPC is attempting to offer a one-stop shop for engineering solutions across segments, it has to tackle competition from established players such as L&T, Praj Industries and Thermax in each of those areas.

This may force SEPC to competitively price its service offerings and may squeeze its margins to an extent. Further, the company's relatively smaller scale of operations may render it unfit to bid for many of the high-value turnkey projects, unless it stikes successful global partnerships.

Moreover, since the company sub-contracts most of the peripheral material requirements for such projects, it may not have complete control over project costs.

This may put to test SEPC's ability to effectively manage its cash flows given its high working capital requirements. Overall, execution risks to this offer are high.

The offer closes on February 1.

Tulsi Extrusions IPO Analysis

Tulsi Extrusions (TEL) is a medium scale PVC pipe manufacturing company with a presence in Gujarat, Orissa, Assam, West Bengal, Delhi and the interiors of Maharashtra. The company is engaged in manufacturing PVC pipes, PVC fabricated fittings, SWR pipes and fittings, PVC casing and Screen pipes, ASTM plumbing pipes, LLDPE pipes, HDPE pipes etc. The company has 3 manufacturing facilities located in Jalgaon, Maharashtra.

The company markets its product under the brand name 'Tulsi' and is marketed through 867 dealers in the 5 states that it covers. The company has a diversified product to cater to various types of end users.

Promoted by Mr. Pradip Mundhra, the company has three manufacturing facilities in Jalgaon, Maharashtra with a total area of 17,955 square meters and a total production capacity of 10,483 metric tones. The company is expanding its production capacity in its Jalgaon unit thereby increasing the capacity of the existing operations to 17,971 metric tones per annum and also expand the product range by venturing into manufacture of PVC moulded fittings, sprinkler systems, online drip irrigation system and fittings for micro irrigation.

The company is also setting up 1.5 MW windmill power plant for captive consumption at an estimated cost of Rs 10 crore. The company further plans to expand its product range by venturing into manufacture of PVC injection moulded fittings, HDPE sprinkler systems, Inline drip irrigation system and LLDPE fittings for micro irrigation.

The products manufactured by the company finds application in agriculture, potable water supply schemes, sewerage and drainage systems, construction industry, telecom industry, bore well for underground water suction etc.

India Is the eighth major consumer of plastics in the world and the plastic industry demand is expected to grow by around 10-12% p.a for the next few years. The global PVC pipe demand is expected to grow by 4% p.a. PVC pipes because of its anti corrosion features and better durability is being used extensively instead of conventional building material in various construction applications. Further on-going accelerated irrigation benefit program and major thrust given to the infrastructure development in India and the construction boom has given a fillip to the PVC building material demand in the recent past.

Strengths

  • The company has a diversified product range with in the same product line..
  • The company has also started manufacturing HDPE pipes, which is an immediate replacement for PVC pipes and is chlorine free. This provides an edge for the company, as there are no major competitors in manufacturing HDPE pipes.
  • The company is aggressively foraying into macro-irrigation sector, sprinkler irrigation, lift-irrigation which are major growth sector going forward.

Weaknesses

  • The industry is highly fragmented and unorganized.
  • Due to lower scale of operation the company would not be able to enjoy economies of scale in its operation.
  • Any increase in global crude oil prices directly influences the input cost of the company as PVC resin prices are directly linked to it.
  • The company relies on external agencies of major petrochemical companies to source its raw material and it does not have any long term agreement with any major supplier. Hence the company is vulnerable to PVC resin price risk.
  • The company has substantial outstanding debtors of Rs 6.56 crore, which is outstanding for more than 6 month.
  • Further the company has been providing around 120 days average credit period to its customers, which is quiet high. This could put severe strain on the working capital requirement of the company.

Valuation

Tulsi Extrusions has set a price band of Rs. 80 to Rs 85 per equity share of Rs 10 each, translating into a PE of 14.1x at the lower price band and 15x at the higher price band, based on the annualized earning per share of Rs 5.7 for the eight month period ended November 2007on post-IPO equity. Notably in these eight months the company has reported very high OPM of 20.4%, compared to OPM of 13.5% last year. In this period while net profit was Rs 4.72 crore, cash flow from operating activities was negative Rs 12.51 crore!

Industry leader and an integrated player Finolex Industries currently trades at a TTM P/E of around 12 and Astral Poly Technik, with a niche and fast growing product line with little competition trades at TTM P/E of around 14.

KNR Constructions Allotment - Subscription Details

KNR Construction Limited - Bid details

Sr.No. Category

No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)

1.3750
1(a) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)


1(b) Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)


1(c) Mutual Funds


1(d) Others


2 Non Institutional Investors

3.2059
2(a) Corporates


2(b) Individuals (Other than RIIs)


2(c) Others


3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)

0.2772
3(a) Cut Off


3(b) Price Bids


4 Employee Reservation

0.6113
4(a) Cut Off


4(b) Price Bids


Onmobile IPO Allotment - Subscription details

 ONMOBILE GLOBAL LIMITED - Bid details

Sr.No. Category

No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)

17.1605
1(a) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)


1(b) Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)


1(c) Mutual Funds


1(d) Others


2 Non Institutional Investors

2.6258
2(a) Corporates


2(b) Individuals (Other than RIIs)


2(c) Others


3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)

1.3080
3(a) Cut Off


3(b) Price Bids


Shriram EPC IPO Analysis

Shriram EPC is one of the leading providers of integrated design, engineering, procurement, construction and project management services for renewable energy projects, process plant, metallurgical plants and municipal services sector projects. Besides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), it also manufactures and installs 250-KW wind turbine generator (WTG) and cooling towers.

The renewable energy business comprises EPC execution of biomass power plant, co-generation power plant projects and bio-ethanol plants. Bio-ethanol technology is sourced from a leading European player with project-specific arrangement. Similarly, EPC solutions for process and metallurgy plants including captive and non-captive thermal power plants are also undertaken. In the process and metallurgy space, bids are placed as part of larger project-specific consortium with international players such as Danielli of Italy for rolling-mill contracts, SSIT of China for coal-dust injection, Waterbury of Canada for stainless-steel mill for an integrated steel plant, Beltran of the US for wet electrostatic precipitators, and Envirotherm GmbH of Germany for coal gasification. In the water and wastewater space, EPC solution is given for treatment plants, water and sewerage infrastructure and pipe rehabilitation.

The WTG business is focused on developing, manufacturing, erecting and commissioning 250-KW WTGs. Currently, megawatt class WTGs are being developed through a subsidiary and associate company, which have formed a joint venture (JV) with Leitwind of the Netherlands. End December 2007, over 210 WTGs were supplied and installed and four wind farm projects developed for clients in India, particularly in Tamil Nadu. The first export order to supply 250-KW WTG to a client in Thailand in fiscal 2007 was executed recently. To move up to MW class of WTGs, one 1.35-MW WTG was installed in Tamilnadu in September 2007 and another is to be installed in Karnataka by February 2008.

The process and metallurgy business accounted for 62.7% of the EPC contract revenue and 39.1% of total consolidated revenue in the year ended March 2007(FY 2007). The biomass power-plant business generated about 26.8% of the EPC contract revenue and 16.7% of consolidated revenue. The municipal services business accounted for 106% of the EPC contract revenue and 6.6% of consolidated revenue. The WTG business generated 35.9% of consolidated revenue.

Shriram EPC has three associate companies manufacturing WTGs, renewable power generation, and metallurgical coke. Orient Green Power (OGPL) is the associate company in which Shriram EPC holds a 48.7% stake, focuses on developing renewable energy source based (biomass and hydel) power plants on build-own-operate (BOO) and build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT). To date, OGPL has identified four biomass power projects in Dindugal, Pattukottai, Vandavasi and Pollachi in Tamilnadu of 1x7.5 MW each, aggregating 30 MW ; one mini hydel power project (of 15 MW) in Orissa; and one poultry-based power project (of 6 MW) in Andhra Pradesh for development. The licence for these six projects to be executed are already in place with third parties. OGPL is expected to acquire a majority / entire stake in each of the special purpose vehicle (SPV). OGPL has also bid for licences for two biomass power plants in Punjab and one in Madhya Pradesh, with a capacity of 10 MW each. Ennore Coke is the listed company and the second associate. Leitner Shriram Manufacturing is the other associate company, where Shriram EPC owns 49%, with the balance 51% held by the Netherlands-based JV partner, Leitwing BV, manufacturing 1.35-MW class WTG machines. This JV is expected to commence operation from January 2008.

Hamon Shriram Cottrell (formerly Hamon Thermopack Engineers) and Shriram Leitwind are the two subsidiaries of Shriram EPC. While Hamon Shriram Cottrell manufactures and erects cooling towers and air pollution control units, Shriram Leitwind (Shriram EPC owns 51%) markets WTG of both 25 KW class and 1.35 MW class. Shriram EPC also plans to shift the manufacturing and marketing of the KW machine business to the newly formed JV companies. Shriram EPC acquired majority stake ( 50% + 2 shares) in erstwhile Hamon Thermopack Engineers from Hamon Group and also got exclusive licence to design, manufacture and sell certain air pollution products and systems from the stable of Hamon Research Cottrell Inc.

The issue proceeds will be used to capitalise the subsidiaries and associate companies to purchase of equipment for pipe-rehabilitation projects and fund expenditure for general corporate purpose.

Strengths

Presence in potentially strong growth sectors such as renewable energy including bio-ethanol plants, metallurgical EPC contracts and water and waste water infra projects. This sector presents strong potential with increasing capital expenditure. Operating in complementary projects such as cooling towers and air pollution control equipment, and coal gasification solutions will help to maximise the business share from both existing and future clients.

Consolidated order book stood at Rs 2279.18 crore end December 2007, translating into about 7.7 times FY 2007 revenue. The order book is also diverse by project mix with the share of process and metallurgical-plant projects including cooling towers and pollution control equipment about 57%, municipal services 9.2%, and biomass-power plant 9.3%. The WTG business accounted for about 7.7% of the total order book. Has also bagged a Euro 69-million contract to design and build a 280-kilo litre per day (KLPD) bio-ethanol plant in Czech Republic.

Successful project execution capability in time-bound and cost-effective manner backed by an able management team. Has executed large and complex projects on time or before the scheduled completion date. As lump-sum turnkey projects do not come with a price-escalation clause, timely completion and cost effectiveness is a big determinant of profitability.

Weakness

Though has a strong presence in 250 KW class, has entered into the MW class with a relatively new player as technology partner. Furthermore, the gearless technology of Leitwind is new, without a track record. This and competition in the global wind-power equipment market calls for strong marketing muscle, which is yet to be seen.

A single order (the EPC contract for setting up of a 1.5-tonne per day grassroot cement plant for Sree Jayajothi Cements in Andhra Pradesh) constituted about 25% of the total order book end December 2007. About 10 projects represented 72.6% of the order book end December 2007. Any delay or holdback of the project will affect the revenue flow.

GEI Industrial Systems has filed a petition before the Company Law Board against Compagnie Financiere Hamon and other praying for restraining Hamon/ or any subsidiary or group company from entering into any new JV and cancellation/ termination of existing JV. In the event of adverse decision against Hamon, the JV Hamon Shriram will be asked to terminate.

Has little experience in the successful execution of bio-ethanol plant. Its ability to scale up in this market by competing against established players is to be seen. Similarly, has also won order for the execution of a cement plant and a coal-gasification plant, where it lacks experience.

Valuations

Consolidated revenue in the fiscal ended March 2007 was higher by 105% to Rs 295.72 crore and the restated net profit up 117% to Rs 14.06 crore. The EPS for FY 2007 works out to Rs 3.3 on post-IPO equity. At the offer price band of Rs 290-Rs 330, the P/E works to 87.9-100 times the FY 2007 consolidated earning. However, the P/E based on consolidated half-yearly EPS (annualised) works out to 59.2 (on the lower price band of Rs 290) times to 67.4 times (on the upper price band of Rs 330). Given the diverse operational profile, there is no comparable player of its size. Nevertheless, peer players such as Thermax, BGR Energy, Praj and Suzlon Energy are quoting at a P/E of 42.3, 175.8, 38.1 and 58.7 times their FY 2007 consolidated earning

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Shriram EPC IPO Analysis

Shriram EPC is one of the leading providers of integrated design, engineering, procurement, construction and project management services for renewable energy projects, process plant, metallurgical plants and municipal services sector projects. Besides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), it also manufactures and installs 250-KW wind turbine generator (WTG) and cooling towers.

The renewable energy business comprises EPC execution of biomass power plant, co-generation power plant projects and bio-ethanol plants. Bio-ethanol technology is sourced from a leading European player with project-specific arrangement. Similarly, EPC solutions for process and metallurgy plants including captive and non-captive thermal power plants are also undertaken. In the process and metallurgy space, bids are placed as part of larger project-specific consortium with international players such as Danielli of Italy for rolling-mill contracts, SSIT of China for coal-dust injection, Waterbury of Canada for stainless-steel mill for an integrated steel plant, Beltran of the US for wet electrostatic precipitators, and Envirotherm GmbH of Germany for coal gasification. In the water and wastewater space, EPC solution is given for treatment plants, water and sewerage infrastructure and pipe rehabilitation.

The WTG business is focused on developing, manufacturing, erecting and commissioning 250-KW WTGs. Currently, megawatt class WTGs are being developed through a subsidiary and associate company, which have formed a joint venture (JV) with Leitwind of the Netherlands. End December 2007, over 210 WTGs were supplied and installed and four wind farm projects developed for clients in India, particularly in Tamil Nadu. The first export order to supply 250-KW WTG to a client in Thailand in fiscal 2007 was executed recently. To move up to MW class of WTGs, one 1.35-MW WTG was installed in Tamilnadu in September 2007 and another is to be installed in Karnataka by February 2008.

The process and metallurgy business accounted for 62.7% of the EPC contract revenue and 39.1% of total consolidated revenue in the year ended March 2007(FY 2007). The biomass power-plant business generated about 26.8% of the EPC contract revenue and 16.7% of consolidated revenue. The municipal services business accounted for 106% of the EPC contract revenue and 6.6% of consolidated revenue. The WTG business generated 35.9% of consolidated revenue.

Shriram EPC has three associate companies manufacturing WTGs, renewable power generation, and metallurgical coke. Orient Green Power (OGPL) is the associate company in which Shriram EPC holds a 48.7% stake, focuses on developing renewable energy source based (biomass and hydel) power plants on build-own-operate (BOO) and build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT). To date, OGPL has identified four biomass power projects in Dindugal, Pattukottai, Vandavasi and Pollachi in Tamilnadu of 1x7.5 MW each, aggregating 30 MW ; one mini hydel power project (of 15 MW) in Orissa; and one poultry-based power project (of 6 MW) in Andhra Pradesh for development. The licence for these six projects to be executed are already in place with third parties. OGPL is expected to acquire a majority / entire stake in each of the special purpose vehicle (SPV). OGPL has also bid for licences for two biomass power plants in Punjab and one in Madhya Pradesh, with a capacity of 10 MW each. Ennore Coke is the listed company and the second associate. Leitner Shriram Manufacturing is the other associate company, where Shriram EPC owns 49%, with the balance 51% held by the Netherlands-based JV partner, Leitwing BV, manufacturing 1.35-MW class WTG machines. This JV is expected to commence operation from January 2008.

Hamon Shriram Cottrell (formerly Hamon Thermopack Engineers) and Shriram Leitwind are the two subsidiaries of Shriram EPC. While Hamon Shriram Cottrell manufactures and erects cooling towers and air pollution control units, Shriram Leitwind (Shriram EPC owns 51%) markets WTG of both 25 KW class and 1.35 MW class. Shriram EPC also plans to shift the manufacturing and marketing of the KW machine business to the newly formed JV companies. Shriram EPC acquired majority stake ( 50% + 2 shares) in erstwhile Hamon Thermopack Engineers from Hamon Group and also got exclusive licence to design, manufacture and sell certain air pollution products and systems from the stable of Hamon Research Cottrell Inc.

The issue proceeds will be used to capitalise the subsidiaries and associate companies to purchase of equipment for pipe-rehabilitation projects and fund expenditure for general corporate purpose.

Strengths

Presence in potentially strong growth sectors such as renewable energy including bio-ethanol plants, metallurgical EPC contracts and water and waste water infra projects. This sector presents strong potential with increasing capital expenditure. Operating in complementary projects such as cooling towers and air pollution control equipment, and coal gasification solutions will help to maximise the business share from both existing and future clients.

Consolidated order book stood at Rs 2279.18 crore end December 2007, translating into about 7.7 times FY 2007 revenue. The order book is also diverse by project mix with the share of process and metallurgical-plant projects including cooling towers and pollution control equipment about 57%, municipal services 9.2%, and biomass-power plant 9.3%. The WTG business accounted for about 7.7% of the total order book. Has also bagged a Euro 69-million contract to design and build a 280-kilo litre per day (KLPD) bio-ethanol plant in Czech Republic.

Successful project execution capability in time-bound and cost-effective manner backed by an able management team. Has executed large and complex projects on time or before the scheduled completion date. As lump-sum turnkey projects do not come with a price-escalation clause, timely completion and cost effectiveness is a big determinant of profitability.

Weakness

Though has a strong presence in 250 KW class, has entered into the MW class with a relatively new player as technology partner. Furthermore, the gearless technology of Leitwind is new, without a track record. This and competition in the global wind-power equipment market calls for strong marketing muscle, which is yet to be seen.

A single order (the EPC contract for setting up of a 1.5-tonne per day grassroot cement plant for Sree Jayajothi Cements in Andhra Pradesh) constituted about 25% of the total order book end December 2007. About 10 projects represented 72.6% of the order book end December 2007. Any delay or holdback of the project will affect the revenue flow.

GEI Industrial Systems has filed a petition before the Company Law Board against Compagnie Financiere Hamon and other praying for restraining Hamon/ or any subsidiary or group company from entering into any new JV and cancellation/ termination of existing JV. In the event of adverse decision against Hamon, the JV Hamon Shriram will be asked to terminate.

Has little experience in the successful execution of bio-ethanol plant. Its ability to scale up in this market by competing against established players is to be seen. Similarly, has also won order for the execution of a cement plant and a coal-gasification plant, where it lacks experience.

Valuations

Consolidated revenue in the fiscal ended March 2007 was higher by 105% to Rs 295.72 crore and the restated net profit up 117% to Rs 14.06 crore. The EPS for FY 2007 works out to Rs 3.3 on post-IPO equity. At the offer price band of Rs 290-Rs 330, the P/E works to 87.9-100 times the FY 2007 consolidated earning. However, the P/E based on consolidated half-yearly EPS (annualised) works out to 59.2 (on the lower price band of Rs 290) times to 67.4 times (on the upper price band of Rs 330). Given the diverse operational profile, there is no comparable player of its size. Nevertheless, peer players such as Thermax, BGR Energy, Praj and Suzlon Energy are quoting at a P/E of 42.3, 175.8, 38.1 and 58.7 times their FY 2007 consolidated earning

Monday, January 28, 2008

KNR Constructions IPO Review

Investors with a two-year perspective can consider applying to the initial public offer of infrastructure company KNR Constructions. A strong order book, reasonable track record in the industry and ability to forge joint ventures to foray into larger projects are the key positives that provide earnings visibility over the medium term.

At the offer price band of Rs 170-180, the company is valued at 8-9 times its expected per share earnings for FY 2009 on the expanded equity base. The stock's market capitalisation at the issue price would be about Rs 500 crore. The small market-cap could expose the stock to steep declines if there are any broad market corrections. Investors should, therefore, be willing to hold the stock over a longer time horizon.
Offer details

KNR Constructions is a Hyderabad-based infrastructure company with operations predominantly in the road and highways sector. The company is also present in irrigation and urban water infrastructure segments. It plans to raise Rs 142 crore through this offer. The proceeds will be utilised to invest in capital equipment and finance build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects secured through joint ventures.
Strong order book

The unexecuted portion of the orders in hand is Rs 1,734 crore. This is about 5.4 times the company's sales for FY 2007.

That a good number of these orders are slotted for completion by FY 2009 provides strong earnings visibility for the next two years.

KNR is also geographically well diversified with state/NHAI projects in Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, New Delhi, Assam and Gujarat. While the South accounts for 70 per cent of the order book (as a result of the large size of BOT orders bagged in the region), the rest of the orders are from the East, North-East and the Northern regions.

With the National Highway Development Programme moving to the next phases (Phase IIIA and later IIIB) of road development, KNR's qualification in projects across the country lends confidence as to its ability to bag bigger orders in the new phases.

While roads remain KNR's area of focus, it has diversified into irrigation as well as urban water solutions. Although business prospects for these segments remain bright, the company may have to compete with larger/established regional players.
Deriving strength through joint ventures

KNR has steadily moved to implementing larger-sized orders, thus improving its operating profit margins. Its OPMs have grown from 8.3 per cent in 2006 to 15.5 per cent for the half-year ended September 2007. The company's ability to forge successful joint ventures may have been the key to ramp up the size of orders.

Notable among them is KNR's association with Patel Engineering for the past seven years. Joint ventures and special purpose vehicle (SPV) projects with Patel Engineering have enabled KNR to not only diversify to other locations but also move to big-ticket orders. Its recent venture into BOT projects in the road space is through SPVs of Patel-KNR. These SPVs, in turn, secure KNR the Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract for such projects.

Interestingly, in order to forge a cautious entry into this new segment, the company has decided to go in for annuity-based BOT projects, which provide assured payments from the Government. The company plans to bid for toll-based projects too in future. Its well-timed move into the BOT space and the prospects arising from Phase IIIA (which awards only BOT projects) augur well for future orders in this segment.

KNR being a mid-sized company, its cautious approach to new segments through joint ventures with reputed players and annuity-based models minimises the risks typically associated with small companies aiming to qualify for bigger/high-end projects.

KNR's net profit grew at a compounded annual rate of 42 per cent over the three years ended FY 2007. The company witnessed some slowdown in orders in 2005 before they picked up pace. While the prospects for the next two years, based on orders in hand, appear bright, investors with a longer perspective may have to look out for the company's ability to scale up the order book beyond this time frame.

Although KNR has comfortably managed its debt obligations, its debt-equity ratio has been high. Post offer, however, the ratio would come to 1.6. An adverse interest rate scenario, though not an immediate risk, could affect the bottom line. At the operating profit level though, the increasing contribution from irrigation and urban water infrastructure projects may bolster earnings.

The offer is open during January 24-29. Axis Bank is the book running lead manager.

Bang Overseas IPO Review

Investors can avoid the initial public offer of Bang Overseas Ltd (BOL). At the upper end of the price band of Rs 200-Rs 207, the offer is valued at close to 20 times the company's annualised FY 08 per-share earnings, on a fully expanded equity base. The company is in its infancy, and with an insufficient track record in the branded retail business, there could be execution risks to its expansion plans. If it manages to execute its capacity addition and retail expansion plans successfully, the valuation is likely to be at more attractive levels on a forward basis. Given the turbulence in the markets, however, staying invested with better-established players may be a more appropriate strategy.
Focus on garments

BOL has a domestic market bias and is, therefore, relatively less exposed to rupee fluctuations and export slowdown, problems that are plaguing most other textile companies.

The company started its garments business in 2002. Till then, it was predominantly a trader in imported fabric. The company sells men's clothing under the brand "Thomas Scott" through a network of multi-brand outlets, departmental stores such as Shoppers' Stop and Globus and 12 exclusive outlets.

A growing share of garments in the revenue mix has significantly improved profitability. Revenues and profits have grown at a stupendous pace since 2005. The company ended fiscal 2007 with revenues of close to Rs 100 crore. Garments currently account for about 40 per cent of revenues.

Through the proceeds of the offer, the company will expand its garments capacity six-fold to more than 7 million pieces a year and expand its retail chain to 100 stores. The fresh capacity is expected to come on stream by September 2008. The company expects to add an additional 88 stores by June 2009; 41 will be company-operated and the remaining franchisee-run.

The additional garment capacity will likely feed its expanding retail operations. and will also help it cater to increasing demand from apparel retailers. BOL is also to foray into women's wear with a line of clothing — Miss Scott.

Execution risks

While these moves can help boost margins and profits in the long-term, there are execution risks, especially when it comes to the retail business.

BOL has identified locations across different regions in the country, with focus on tier-two and tier-three cities. However, there has not been much progress in finalising properties for its retail operations. Agreements have been signed for only nine of the planned 41 stores. The company has not entered into further franchisee-agreements for running the remaining stores.

The offer document does not state whether the stores will be stand-alone or in malls, nor does it mention the size of these stores. Less than Rs 10 crore of this Rs 70 crore issue has been earmarked for retail expansion. Cost over-runs are likely, considering increasing real-estate rentals and higher competition from established retailers and other garment exporters in tier-two towns. There could also be considerable delays in store openings. The company's lack of experience in the retail business also does not inspire confidence in its execution. At the same time, retail operations may be crucial to making a mark in the branded apparel business, considering that the company lacks the financial wherewithal to commit huge sums to brand-building. Several large garment exporters are also turning to the domestic market to combat the slowdown on in the export front, which is likely to heighten competition in this segment.

Considering the low visibility of prospects at this stage, investors may be better off following a wait-and-watch approach and revisit the stock once the company gains a firmer foothold in the domestic apparel market.

The offer opens on January 28 and closes on January 31, 2008.

Onmobile Global IPO Review

Investments can be considered in the initial public offering of OnMobile Global, a telecom value-added services (VAS) provider, in the light of its track record in the Indian market and good growth prospects. The offer price, though, appears to be stiff given current market conditions and the valuation accorded to frontline telecom service and software players.

At the upper end of the price band (Rs 450) the stock would be valued at 44 times its estimated current year earnings, on the post-offer equity base. But the niche nature of OnMobile's business, sustainable growth prospects, strong operating margins (45 per cent) and the absence of peers in the listed space make a strong case for investment. Value-added services (such as music downloads and gaming) augment the voice revenues of telecom players. The market for value-added services has strong growth potential in India where telecom players are grappling with falling realisations (ARPUs) and looking to generate higher revenues from subscribers.

OnMobile Global offers content aggregation and application development, which is software-packaged, to telecom service providers. The company retains the intellectual property rights to the platform and applications. OnMobile, with its established relationships with most of the dominant players — Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications, and BSNL — appears well-placed to capitalise on this potential.

An expanding client profile to include media companies and handset manufacturers and an expanding South-East Asian footprint are positives for the company.
Integrated VAS Play

Among value-added services, short messaging service (SMS) continues to be the top non-voice revenue generator for telecom companies. But increasingly, services such as ringtone downloads, voice SMS, gaming and information services are also catching up and providing alternative revenue streams to operators. Other VAS include MMS (multimedia messaging service), USSD (unstructured supplementary service data) and WAP (wireless application protocol). OnMobile, with its positioning and experience, appears well placed to establish its presence in this space. Mobile Commerce, service that facilitates payment for movie tickets, utility bills, pre-paid recharge and shopping, is an area where OnMobile is expanding its offerings.

With players such as Reliance Communications and Bharti Airtel already having launched this service, the company could benefit from increased spending in this segment. Together, these give OnMobile a healthy service base.
Broadening client profile

Moving beyond telecom clients, OnMobile is broadbasing its customer base by offering interactive services to newspapers, magazines, television and radio broadcasters. Clients in this segment include ESPN, Star, AOL and Buena Vista. With mobile contests, polling, voting, song downloads and other interactive services on the increase from media companies, OnMobile may see this segment contribute significantly to revenues. The revenue sharing arrangement is three-way between OnMobile, media clients and the telecom company. The company also works with handset manufacturers such as Nokia to market its products, creating a holistic business model.
Expanding Geographical footprint

In addition to domestic presence, OnMobile has expanded its offerings to clients in the fast-growing South East Asian markets. The relationship here is with strong telecom players in this region such as Maxis, Optus, Bakrie Telecom and Banglalink. Some of these countries have higher ARPUs than India and also a high propensity to use value-added services. OnMobile stands to gain with any increased spend on VAS by these players.

In addition, OnMobile has acquired two companies — Vox mobili in France and ITFINITY in India — both VAS players. While the former is said to have 21 customers worldwide, the latter has good software products. These moves help in widening OnMobile's offerings and client base.
Technology independence and 3G policy:

OnMobile's applications are claimed to be network-neutral. This means that services can be delivered to a 2, 2.5 or 3G phone or network.

In the Indian context, this becomes relevant as a vast number of users still have low-end phones. As operators upgrade the technology of their network, OnMobile's products may not require substantial reworking to be commissioned in the network. The imminent announcement of the 3G policy, with many operators betting on increased offtake of high-end voice, data and video services, could provide a trigger to this business. OnMobile, with its offerings and operator relationships, may be able to tap into this high-margin market.
Risks

Most of the revenues that OnMobile generates is outcome-based — a revenue share arrangement with the operator, based on offtake of services by mobile subscribers. The success or failure of an offering thus directly affects realisations.

This apart, a substantial number of new subscribers may have come in because of offers such as 'life-time recharge', 'chota recharge' and so on. These are typically low ARPU subscribers and may not use value-added services in a significant way. This has adverse implications for OnMobile. Competition from other (unlisted) players in the same segment such as Bharti Telesoft, IMI Mobile and Servion Global may create pricing pressures on OnMobile. Vendor rationalisation from players such as BSNL may force OnMobile to work with a smaller pie.

Issue details

The company proposes to issue 1.09 crore shares at a price band of Rs 425-450, for purchase of office equipment, repayment of loans and working capital requirements. The offer is open during January 24-29. Deutsche Bank and ICICI Securities are book running lead managers to the issue.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Cords Cable IPO Subscription,Allotment Details

Sr.No. Category

No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)

6.8271
1(a) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)


1(b) Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)


1(c) Mutual Funds


1(d) Others


2 Non Institutional Investors

5.1132
2(a) Corporates


2(b) Individuals (Other than RIIs)


2(c) Others


3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)

2.5818
3(a) Cut Off


3(b) Price Bids


4 Employee Reservation

1.0143
4(a) Cut Off


4(b) Price Bids


Thursday, January 24, 2008

Latest Grey Market Premiums

 Future Capital Holding 765 400 to 415


Reliance Power 450 210 to 220


Emaar MGF 610 to 690 280 to 290


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 7 to 10


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 15 to 17


Bang Overseas 200 to 207 32 to 35

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Power off, cheque de!!

The public issue of Reliance Power closed for subscription last week. However, the buzz around it is far from over. According to bankers who are associated with the deal, there have been quite a few withdrawals in the non-institutional segment, which is also popularly known as the HNI (for high net worth individual) category.

Market players said the withdrawals have been on account of two factors: the huge oversubscription and a steady decline in the grey market premium. The massive fall in the secondary market has also played a major role, they said.
"There are enough reasons to believe that many HNIs have issued stop-payment instructions," said a banker on conditions of anonymity. "It happened in the case of Cairn and now it is happening in R-Power.

The huge oversubscription (in the HNI category) will lead to small allotments, which will make life difficult for people who have leverage to invest in the issue," he added. The number of people issuing such instructions could not be ascertained.

Nor could the value be obtained. An official who works with one of banks involved in collection of escrow amounts said there have been stop-payment instructions for bids worth around Rs 4 crore. An R-Power official declined to comment on an email questionnaire on this issue.

HNIs typically borrow money at 17-20% to invest in public issues. So, the number of shares allotted and the listing gains play an important role. If both go down, it becomes a loss-making proposition, as the cost of borrowing money or leveraging becomes more than the listing gains.

R-Power's public issue closed on Friday last week and the HNI category was subscribed more than 190 times. This means an investor bidding for 10 lakh shares would get a little over 5,200 shares. The low allotment is a big blow to HNIs who have borrowed money for one lakh shares.

Such investors could still manage high gains if the stock lists at a massive premium to the issue price, which in this case is Rs 450. If the grey market premium is anything to go by, then the stock is likely to list at a premium of around Rs 200. This is much below the earlier projections of more than Rs 500.

A section of market players are of the view that the recent massive fall could also have triggered a lot of withdrawals, as investors would have preferred to buy stocks at lower levels. In the last one week, the Sensex has lost more than 3,500 points, or 17.4%. Most large-cap stocks have lost anything between 10% and 20%, which provides an excellent buying opportunity with much less risks involved.

Investors looking for a share of R-Power can now may look at Reliance Energy, say dealers. "The stock has fallen by nearly 30% in the last one week and provides excellent buying opportunity," said a dealer.

Some banks in Ahmedabad are believed to have received calls asking for stop-payment on Reliance Power. Tentative estimates peg the amount of stop- payment cheques at over Rs 100 crore. The final figure would be available by January 23. A few co-operative and public sector banks in Gujarat said that that their branches received instructions for stop-payment for cheques issued in favour of Reliance Power.

The list of public sector banks included Central Bank of India, Dena Bank, Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank, while many co-operative banks like Kalupur Bank and Nutan Nagrik Bank also received stop-payment instructions.

An official at Kalupur Bank, which has 33 branches spread across the state, said its Ashram Road branch has received 25 applications. A Nutan Nagrik Bank official confirmed that each of its 18 branches have received three to 15 applications with similar instructions.

Nikunj Patel, a bank employee, said as he was suffering from financial stringency, he preferred to stop payment on the cheque issued in favour of the Futures group.

via Economic Times

Reliance Power "investors" panic - try to stop cheques

Investors queued up outside several banks to issue stop cheque instructions in an effort to retrieve their money put into the Reliance Power IPO.

Market fall - IPO fun over!

Initial public offerings (IPOs) hitting the market over the next few weeks could face subdued response, analysts said, after the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark index, Sensex, witnessed its biggest intra-day fall in absolute terms.
"Ultimately, IPO pricing depends on market conditions," said Devesh Kumar, managing director of Mumbai-based boutique financial services firm Centrum Broking Ltd. "There are two options for new public issues—to delay or to reprice. The success of an IPO, in terms of bids received, also depends on its marketing power," he added, explaining the success of the IPOs of Reliance Power Ltd and Future Capital Holdings Ltd last week. The benchmark index has shed 16.9% since its lifetime high recorded early this month.

IPOs, which are generally looked at as safe investments, have been giving large and rapid returns in recent times, in line with the stock markets that experienced an extended bull run. That's resulted in a huge appetite for IPOs among investors, but with bears taking over the street in recent days, new offerings are less likely to get the same response.
Many recent offerings, all listed at a considerable premium, are now trading at a significant discount to their offer prices. Nine out of 14 stocks that got listed in December are now trading at a discount to their listing prices and six of them are even trading below their offer prices.

Mankasia Ltd and Renaissance Jewellery Ltd closed at more than a 40% discount to their listing prices while two more stocks that entered the market last month have lost more than 37% since their listing. Porwal Auto Components Ltd, Precision Pipes and Profiles Co. Ltd and Manaksia Ltd are all down more than 32% from their offer prices.
"Reliance Power and Future Capital listings are very crucial at this time. It they list at considerable premiums, the interest in the IPO market will (be) sustain(ed). Till then it is expected to be very subdued," said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities.

The Rs11,700 crore Reliance Power IPO was subscribed close to 73 times and Future Capital's float was subscribed 132 times.
"Investors have very short memories; if, say, the eighth IPO from now gives good returns, they will jump on the IPO bandwagon again," Jasani added.
In 2007, 106 IPOs raised Rs48,329 crore from the market. Investment bankers expect at least Rs1 trillion to be raised from the primary market through public issues in 2008.

IPOs that are set to hit the market over the next fortnight include those of Emaar MGF Ltd, Bang Overseas Ltd and IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. Emaar MGF is offering 102.6 million shares at a price band of Rs610-690. The $1.8 billion float opens on 1 February.

"If the market continues to fall, some of the firms that are planning to enter the market may decide to wait. We will advise them to do so. They can delay the float even after they receive the nod of the capital market regulator. This has happened in the past...," said a senior executive of a domestic brokerage who did not wish to be named.

Via Mint

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Power Premium - tera kya hoga ?

 Future Capital Holding 765 440 to 450


Reliance Power 450 220 to 230


Emaar MGF 725 to 850 280 to 300


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 8 to 10


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 10 to 12

Sunday, January 20, 2008

ICICI Securities IPO Coming soon

ICICI Bank announced that the board of directors of ICICI Securities, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the bank, at its meeting held on Jan. 19, 2008 approved an initial public offering (IPO) of equity shares, as well as private placement of equity shares to one or more institutional investors.

The board of directors of the bank also approved the proposed capital raising. The maximum dilution of the bank`s holding in ICICI Securities through the proposed public offering and private placement would be up to 15% of the post-issue capital base of ICICI Securities.

The primary operation of ICICI Securities would mainly involve retail broking, institutional broking, distribution of retail financial products, wealth management and equity capital markets, including advisory services. The above equity offering would be subject to necessary regulatory, statutory and other approvals and procedures.

ICICI securities is considering an initial public offering (IPO) of equity shares, which may also include an offer for sale by the promoter. The draft red herring prospectus will be filed with Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) in due course. However, this is subjected to the market conditions and regulatory approvals.

Via IRIS

Reliance Power for all retail investors ? How ?

It may have been a chance remark. Said at the spur of the moment without contemplation. On the other hand, it may not have been so on-the-spot. Just hours after pulling off the largest ever IPO subscription in global capital market history, Anil Ambani, chairman of ADAG, was at a press conference tackling the ticklish question of whether he is likely to overtake elder brother Mukesh Ambani in the richest Indian sweepstakes.

"The media seems to be more interested in this than anybody else. In any case, if you look at Indian history, the elder brother always stays ahead in the race," Mr Ambani quipped.

A short look at numbers will tell why Mr Ambani can afford to be in a jocular mood. Two years after being formed, the Reliance ADA group is likely to emerge as the country's second-biggest business group with a market cap of $100 bln (which includes Reliance Power listing at the IPO price of Rs 450 per share).

His own personal wealth has also been trending skywards and is set to rocket further after the Reliance Power listing. Reliance Power's market cap alone is set to be more $25 bln, making it one of India's biggest companies.

A day after creating history by attracting bids for shares worth over Rs 7.5 lakh crore for its IPO, Anil Ambani's Reliance Power is now working on allotment of shares to maximum number of retail investors.

"Our endeavour is to allot shares to each and every retail shareholders who have applied for the IPO. On listing, Reliance Power will be amongst the top 10 listed companies in India and will have the largest shareholders across the world," he told on Saturday.

This will be the second bonanza for the 50 lakh retail investors who have applied for a slice of the $3 billion IPO, largest maiden issue in the Asia Pacific power sector. The first one was a Rs 20 discount on the sale price. The issue price is fixed at Rs 450 a share and it is expected to be listed in early-February on the stock exchanges.

Mr Ambani's penchant for retail investors is well-known. On the day of kick-starting the road show for the IPO, he had said he would have sold the entire issue to retail investors, had it been allowed. Even in that case, the issue would have subscribed four times.

In addition to the record participation by retail investors, the issue created a whole lot of new milestones. For instance, it got subscription worth over $100 billion from foreign investors, which is nearly 40% of India's current forex reserves. The entire foreign institutional investors' (FIIs) contribution to the Indian market was $20 billion last year. As many as 500 domestic and international QIBs (qualified institutional bidders) applied with a combined $125 billion, another new high in India.

"Record subscription achieved in the midst of global and domestic meltdown in stock markets during the week. The Dow Jones index has fallen 4.2%. London index fell down 4.1%. Hang Seng witnessed a 4.8% fall. During this period Sensex has fallen 8.3%. We appreciate the confidence of the investors in Reliance Power," said Mr Ambani.

At Rs 450 a share, the market cap of the company works out to be $25.88 billion, taking the total M-Cap of the group to $100 billion. This will make it the second largest group in terms of M-Cap, overtaking the Tata Group.

Interestingly, the group's M-Cap was just $4 billion when it was born out of a de-merger of the Reliance group in June, 2005.

Via Economic Times

Cords Cable Industries IPO review

Cords Cable Industries, promoted by mechanical engineers Naveen Sawhney, D K Parashar and Rakesh Malhotra in 1991, caters to the growing requirement for high quality customised cables. Over the years, the company has been expanding its product range and has added a variety of specialty cables to its product range. The aim was to address specific requirement of industries involving modern process technologies, instrumentation and communication demanding the highest standards of precision and reliability and household users with assured quality and safety standards.

Recently, Cords Cable Industries increased its capacities for existing products (including low-tension cables) at Rs 13.20 crore. Production from the expanded facility started in January 2008. The product portfolio includes low-tension (LT) control and power cables (up to 1.1 KV); instrumentation, signal and data cables; thermocouple extension/compensating cables; panel wires/household wires/flexible cables and specialty cables (tailored for each application as per specifications of customers).

In view of the increasing demand for cables and the need for diversifying and expanding its existing range of products, Cords Cable Industries plans to add high-tension (HT) cables and rubber cables to its existing product range at an outlay of Rs 57.40 crore (Rs 5.19 crore has already deployed in this project). The commercial production from this expanded facility is expected to start from April 2009. For funding such expansion and for working capital and general corporate purpose, the company has lined up an IPO to raise Rs 38.56 crore to Rs 41.65 crore comprising fresh issue of 30.85 lakh shares in the price band of Rs 125 to Rs 135 per share. It will take on Rs 12.20-crore debt for the proposed expansion.

Strengths

  • The organised cable industry has grown at an estimated CAGR of 25% in the last three years. This growth is likely to sustain over the next few years due to various favorable factors such as large-scale investment in power (generation, transmission and distribution), steel, refineries and other manufacturing sectors leading to huge demand for cables and investment in new sectors like metro rail, aviation, and wind power leading to demand for speciality cables.
  • Has a diversified client profile including from the power, cement, refineries, steel, fertilizers and chemicals sectors. Is the approved vendor for many large caps such as NTPC, Bhel, Powergrid Corporation of India, Nuclear Power Corporation, L&T, Tata Steel, Reliance Energy, Tata Power, Hindalco, ACC, HPCL, GAIL, and Honeywell. Also has been approved by almost all top consultants like Kvaerner Powergas India, Toyo Engineering India, Engineers India, and Rites.
  • Production from expanded facility to produce LT power cables and other products started in January 2008. Empanelled with most of the large corporates and top consultants comprising Bhel, Tata Steel, NTPC, L&T, Reliance Energy, Nuclear Power Corporation of India, and Cairns.
  • The barriers to enter the cable industry are pre-qualification on technical grounds and proven track records. Pre-qualification with proven track record with consistent performance will help in selling products.

Weaknesses

  • Power-cable producers are required to get pre-qualification on technical grounds and should have proven track record. This is a long drawn out process and needs substantial investment of time and money. At present, Cords Cable Industries has pre-qualifications for LT cables but not for HT and rubber cables to be manufactured after proposed expansion.
  • Competition from large number of cable manufacturers in the organised as well as unorganised sectors and imports. Rising raw-material prices will also put pressure on margin.
  • Contingent liabilities of Rs 51.09 crore not provided for. Net worth after the issue would be Rs 69.98 crore.

Valuation

Over the four-year period ended March 2007, revenue grew at a CAGR of 60% and net profit at a CAGR of 166%. Operating profit margin also improved to 15.2% in the six months ended September 2007 from 3.9% in the year ended March 2003. Order book stood at about Rs 77 crore end November 2007. Of this, around 50% comes from the power sector. The historical asset-turnover ratio of more than 6 expected to be maintained. The completed expansion may give additional revenue of about Rs 75 crore annually. Once commercial production after the proposed expansion from April 2009 would add about Rs 275 crore- Rs 300 crore to the top line from FY 2010.

On annualised EPS of Rs 9.4 in the six months ended September 2007 on post-issue equity capital of Rs 11.43 crore, the P/E works out to 13.3 – 14.4 at the price band of Rs 125–Rs 135. The trailing 12-month (TTM) P/E of listed peers Torrent Cables, KEI Industries and Universal Cables were 9.9, 16.6 and 15.3. However, they are comparatively large players. But KEI Industries and Universal Cables also make HT cables--- a product Cords Cable Industries intends to manufacture.

Reliance Power Grey Market premium tumbles

 Future Capital Holdings 700 to 765 550 to 570


Reliance Power 405 to 450 260 to 270



J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 20 to 25


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 30 to 32


KNR Construction 170 to 180 --


Onmobile Global 425 to 450 --


Bang Overseas Ltd. 200 to 207 --

Manjushree Extrusion 45 --

Emaar MGF 725 to 850 350 to 370

J Kumar Infraprojects IPO Analysis

Investors can avoid subscribing to the initial public offer of J. Kumar Infraprojects (JKI). The asking price of Rs 110-120 appears stiff, given the present size of the company and the large number of unorganised players in the contracting space. Limited geographical presence, significant expansion in equity and low visibility for growth over the long term are also limiting factors for this company. However, given that the overall prospects for the company's business appear good, investors can take a second look at the stock post-listing, if its valuation dips due to broad market factors.

At the offer band, the IPO is priced at 19-21 times its per share earnings of FY 2007 on a pre-issue equity base. Post-issue, the price-earnings multiple is 14-16 times the annualised earnings for FY-08. Similar sized peers are at a discount to this valuation.

Business and offer details

JKI, a construction company with operations in Maharashtra, focusses on building roads, flyovers, buildings and piling works. The offer proceeds (Rs 72-78 crore) are to be utilised for purchasing capital equipment and for working capital requirements. At the offer price band, the market capitalisation of the company's stock would be Rs 228-248 crore.

Sustainability, an issue

JKI, although incorporated in 1999, started operations in 2005 and saw a huge jump in revenues in 2006. This was after one of the promoter group companies — J. Kumar & Co. — transferred certain assets as well as a contract licence for public works department. JKI's revenue grew from Rs 3 crore in FY-05 to Rs 112 crore in FY-07. The company's current order-book of Rs 461 crore provides earnings visibility over the next couple of years. However, the annual growth over 2006 and 2007, afforded by a low base, is unlikely to repeat itself.

The present infrastructure boom in the country provides ample room for small players such as JKI to share a part of the order flow pie. However, JKI's current business model depends more on the local municipal and metropolitan development authorities (in Maharashtra) than on the 'infrastructure spending' in the country. While this strategy is likely to fetch steady revenues in the medium term, the growth opportunity appears relatively less as infrastructure players moving to high-end segments could be better options from an investment perspective. The company's valuation can, therefore, at best be at a discount to other infrastructure players.

Concentration of work in a single State also poses the risk of slowdown if the State spending declines. The company has also not stated any plans of moving to locations outside of Maharashtra.

JKI has done well to diversify its operations from predominantly bridges and flyovers to civil construction and piling works. Piling works for larger infrastructure players are likely to provide the company with superior profit margins. The OPMs for the half-year ended September 2007 have already seen a marked increase of over 500 basis points.

While the augmented volume may also have contributed to the improved profit margins, the working-capital requirements may further tighten with more projects. The increase in the proportion of debtors (as a percentage of sales) for the half-year ended September 2007 indicates that volumes could pose pressure on working capital. Increase in secured loans and rise in interest charges also point to the mounting requirement for funds. While the offer proceeds would provide some momentary relief on this front, the company may have to find other sources to fund its projects in hand.

Cords Cable Industries IPO Analysis

Investors with a lowrisk appetite and a moderate return expectation can consider an exposure in the initial public offering of Cords Cable Industries (CCIL).

In the business of manufacturing cables, CCIL offers a proxy exposure to the ongoing infrastructure and power growth story. Robust growth in sales and bottomline, diverse revenue mix, established clientele and the proposed entry into HT (high tension) power, rubber and speciality cables segment, suggest good prospects for the company.

In the price band of Rs 125-135, the stock would be valued at about 12-13 times its likely FY-08 per share earnings on a diluted equity base.

While the valuation is not a steep discount to established players such as KEI Industries, they appear attractive, considering the strong demand environment and the move by CCIL into higher value-added product segment. We would be more comfortable if the offer is priced at the lower end of the price band.

Investment rationale

The demand for cables is set to increase significantly, given the ongoing capex in power and infrastructure and strong growth in industries such as metro rail, shipping and aviation.

In the light of the robust demand undercurrents, CCIL's capacity expansion in low tension (LT) power cables segment and the proposed addition of HT power, rubber and speciality cables to its product portfolio appear promising. CCIL's established track record of over 15 years with approvals and pre-qualifications from companies such as NTPC, BHEL, Power Grid and Reliance Energy also lend confidence to its ability to further penetrate the cables' market.

CCIL's order-book pegged at about Rs 77 crore (as on November 30, 2007) lends visibility to revenues. Revenues could also get a lift from the management's renewed focus on the export market.

While the company has so far not enjoyed any significant exposure to the export market (1 per cent in FY-07), it plans to export to over 15 countries by FY-09, broadbasing from the current spread of over five countries.

In this context, CCIL has already tied up with companies in West Asia such as Petroleum Development Oman and Saudi Electric Supply Company.

CCIL witnessed a compounded earnings growth of over 328 per cent supported by a 67 per cent growth in revenues during the last four years. During the period, operating profits enjoyed a CAGR of about 127 per cent; operating profit margins expanded by 8.9 percentage points to about 14.7 per cent.

Going forward, margins may witness a further expansion given CCIL's foray into higher value-added products. Besides, post-expansion, CCIL may also benefit from better utilisation of its capacities.

Business

CCIL has a diversified clientele and product portfolio. Its current order-book, with the major portion leaning towards power sector (about 48 per cent), is spread across sectors such as cement, refineries and petrochemicals and steel.

The company may be able to further extend its reach to sectors such as railways, shipping and wind power after the proposed expansion of its capacity and the addition of new products. On the product front, it offers an extensive range of high quality control and instrumentation cables, power cables and special cables for oil wells. The company plans to utilise proceeds from the issue towards setting up of production facilities. About Rs 6 crore from the proceeds will be diverted towards working capital requirements.

Concerns

While CCIL does hedge its price risk on copper to an extent, any steep increase in price of copper and aluminium (about 50-70 per cent of the raw material cost) may adversely affect its earnings.

Offer details

The offer is open from January 21-24. Collins Stewart Inga is the book running lead manager to the issue.


Via Businessline

Reliance Power Final Subscription Details

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) - 82.6190 times

Non Institutional Investors - 190.0231 times

Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) - 14.8716 times

OVERALL - 73.04 times

Friday, January 18, 2008

Reliance Power IPO...gone in 60 seconds

As expected, investors of all hues and categories scrambled to submit bids for the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Reliance Power, part of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG), as the US$3bn issue opened on Jan. 15. The issue was oversubscribed within seconds of opening on Jan. 15. According to the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the biggest ever public issue to hit the Indian markets was subscribed by 73 times as at 6 p.m. on Friday, with the QIBs and HNIs accounting for the big chunk of the bids. The ADAG company, promoted by Reliance Energy and Anil Dhirubhai Ambani, received bids for 16.55bn shares as against the issue size of 228mn shares. Reliance Power's promoters Anil Dhirubhai Ambani and Reliance Energy brought in their contribution of Rs14.4bn at Rs450 per share. The subscription price for these shares was determined at the upper end of the price band of Rs405-450 per share.

The Reliance Power IPO is expected to raise Rs107-117bn. The total issue size is of 260mn shares, including the promoters' contribution of 32mn shares. The issue has being rated 4/5 by rating agencies CRISIL and ICRA, indicating above average fundamentals. Retail investors were offered a discount of Rs20 per share, which implies their net cost of subscription will be Rs430 per share, if they choose to bid at Rs450 per share. They also had the option of making part payment, wherein they had to put in only Rs115 per share upon application. The balance will be called upon, post the allotment of partly paid shares.

With a combined planned installed capacity of 28,200 MW, Reliance Power has one of the largest portfolios of power generation assets under development in India. The issue proceeds are proposed to be utilised for funding subsidiaries to part-finance the construction and development costs of the various projects under development and for general corporate purposes. Meanwhile, the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) adjourned its hearing till Jan. 21, on complaints against the Reliance Power IPO. Last week, the Supreme Court had said the IPO will go ahead even if there is any case against it.

Emaar MGF, Reliance Power, Future Capital Holdings

 Future Capital Holdings 700 to 765 540 to 550


Reliance Power 405 to 450 340 to 350


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 25 to 30


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 30 to 35


Emaar MGF 725 to 850 370 to 375

Important - Reliance Power - Payment Option

For those who are yet to apply for the Reliance Power issue can apply for the 1L option by paying 25875.

The Retail Portion is already oversubscribed by 8 times and there is no chance that you would end up with partly paid up shares - So go ahead and apply for 1L using part payment option - you would stand a better chance when it comes to allotment

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Grey Market - J Kumar, Emaar, Reliance Power

 Future Capital Holdings 700 to 765 540 to 550


Reliance Power 405 to 450 300 to 350 (Off from the highs)


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 30 to 35


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 5 to 37


Emaar MGF 725 to 850 360 to 380

Reliance Power - Oversubscription - Allotment - Day 1

Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category 1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 136800000 2217736125 16.2115 1(a) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
1785936090
1(b) Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)
431761545
1(c) Mutual Funds
0
1(d) Others
38490
2 Non Institutional Investors 22800000 160126845 7.0231 2(a) Corporates
125872035
2(b) Individuals (Other than RIIs)
33030990
2(c) Others
1223820
3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 68400000 56208630 0.8218 3(a) Cut Off
52143225
3(b) Price Bids
4065405

Future Capital - Subscription/Allotment Chances

Sr.No. Category No.of shares offered/reserved No. of shares bid for No. of times of total meant for the category
1 Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 3853680 135085872 35.0537
1(a) Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
120626344
1(b) Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)
14198128
1(c) Mutual Funds
0
1(d) Others
261400
2 Non Institutional Investors 642280 9089080 14.1513
2(a) Corporates
2460704
2(b) Individuals (Other than RIIs)
6605928
2(c) Others
22448
3 Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 1926840 29476152 15.2977
3(a) Cut Off
28073592
3(b) Price Bids
1402560

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

J Kumar Infraprojects IPO Analysis

J Kumar Infraprojects (JKIL), promoted by Jagdishkumar M Gupta and his family, is a small civil engineering company focussed on construction of roads, flyovers, civil construction of buildings, irrigation projects and piling works. Operations are largely confined in Maharashtra and to a large extent in Mumbai. The company is a registered contractor with various government agencies.

JKIL had executed transportation contracts totaling Rs 83.95 crore and civil construction work amounting to Rs 13.78 crore end March 2007. The biggest project executed was the construction of a flyover covering Kalyan Naka junction to ST Depot junction in Thane District amounting to Rs 21 crore. The company has executed some irrigation projects in the Vidarbha region. Designing and construction of four flyovers at Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Marg in Mumbai with project cost of Rs 111.90 crore is the biggest project in its unexecuted order backlog. This project was bagged by the 50:50 joint venture with Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC).

About 69% (37% from road, and 32% from flyovers) of the revenues were from transportation projects in the six months ended September 2007. The share of the relatively better margin civil construction was 18% and of high margin piling business about 7%.

The current IPO is to fund the purchase of capital equipments, meeting working capital requirement and to achieve the benefits of stock-exchange listing. Purchase of Rs 50.84-crore capital equipment will be completely funded from the proceeds of the issue. About Rs 18 crore of the issue proceeds will be used to meet working capital requirement.

Strengths

Order book was Rs 461.15 crore end November 2007. Orders included new contracts and unfinished contracts. The current order book translates into four times the financial year ending March 2007 (FY 2007) revenue, providing strong revenue visibility.

Piling contracts is a high-margin business. Efforts to add another four piling rigs to the current fleet of 11 piling rigs using IPO proceeds are part of the scaling up operations. Contribution of piling operations to total revenue was about 7% in the half year ended September 2007 and FY 20'07 compared with just 4% in FY 2006 and nil in FY 2005. Moreover, the piling operation is also devoid of geographical-concentration risk. If the piling contracts business, a niche segment, can be scaled up, margin can improve.

Weaknesses

As the nature of contracts handled are not very complex, there is strong competition with lots of operators. This and the small size of operations is a concern. The ability to move up to higher ticket and complex jobs has to be seen.

Most of the construction operations are centered in Mumbai or Maharashtra. The geographical concentration raises concern on order flow, linked to policy, political and financial environment in the state.

The share of low-margin transportation projects in the current order book is over 78%.

Valuation

JKIL's sales were up 391% to Rs 112.66 crore and net profit was higher by 642% to Rs 8.01 crore in FY 2007. On post-issue equity capital of Rs 20.72 crore, EPS for FY 2007 works out to Rs 3.9. At a offer price of Rs 110 to Rs 120, P/E is 28.2 to 30.8 times. In comparison, industry peers Roman Tarmat, PBA Infrastructure and Supreme Infrastructure are available at a PE of around 20 times FY 2007 earning.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Grey Market - EMAAR MGF, Cords Cable, J Kumar Infraprojects

 Future Capital Holdings 700 to 765 590 to 595


Reliance Power 405 to 450 360 to 370


SVPCL 42 DISCOUNT


Porwal Autocomponents 75 DISCOUNT ( Listing Today!)


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 25 to 30


Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 35 to 40


Emaar MGF 725 to 850 400 to 450

It's all about Power!

Power utility stocks have seen good gains in recent months, further upside depends on their ability to deliver on promises.
Power utility stocks have been a hit with investors since the last few months with stocks of nearly all major companies beating the BSE Sensex by a good margin.
The outperformance comes as a surprise, considering that stocks of power utilities are typically valued on a price-to-book value basis, since they earn fixed returns and a steady or a predictable cash flow and, there has been no unusual jump in their earnings recently.
Traditionally, stocks of power utilities have been valued between 1-2 times their respective book values. In terms of costs, including fuel expenses, interest and depreciation, all of it is pass-through and are passed on to the consumers so as to ensure that power utilities earn the fixed rate of return of 14 per cent on the shareholders funds (return on equity or RoE).
The conventional method of valuations though now seem to have gone for a toss as most of these companies are trading at about 4-5 times their respective book value and, their PE multiples are now at over 30 times FY07 earnings.
What's changed?
To know the factors responsible for this up move and to know if there is still power left in these stocks, read on. Much of the action was started with the announcement of ultra mega power projects (UMPP), followed by the controversy over nuclear power in the country.
By that time, the market was convinced that the government is not only aiming for the ambitious capacity additions of 78,577 megawatt (MW) during the Five Year Plan ending 2011, but also, a large part of it is very likely to be achieved.
Their belief was further fuelled by the government's initiatives such as allocation of coal mines and allowing merchant power. The listing of Power Grid at premium valuations instilled more confidence among investors.
However, the most recent trigger in the sector, says Deepak Jasani, head of retail research, HDFC Securities, "For the last few months, there has not been any fresh trigger for the re-rating of the power utility sector apart from the hype built over the Reliance Power IPO. Re-rating of stocks in this space is happening based on relative valuations with respect to various parameters like capacity (existing and planned), book value, etc, when compared with the Reliance Power valuations."
Relative parity
The forthcoming IPO of Reliance Power (RPL) has had a big rub-off on valuations. To give some numbers, based on Reliance Power's IPO price, at lower-band, of Rs 405 per share, the market is valuing the company at Rs 91,530 crore, in terms of market capitalisation. At the IPO price, its price to book-value per share works out to over 7 times.
There is nothing exceptional in the case of RPL, which justifies a premium valuation over others. Analysts say, for the six projects totaling 7,060 MW and estimated to cost Rs 31,789 crore, for which the funds are being raised in the IPO, the RoE for RPL is unlikely to be significantly higher than the usual 14 per cent. That's even after considering some upside potential in the case of the 3,960 MW Sasan-based ultra-mega power project and merchant power capacity.
Now compare this with NTPC, India's largest power producer and the sixth largest coal-based producer in the world, which currently has an installed capacity of about 28,000 MW (including about 1,000 MW through joint ventures) and a RoE of 14.9 per cent (for FY07). For NTPC, the price to book-value works out to 4.6 times.
Notably, NTPC has already undertaken various projects, which will see its capacity increase to over 50,000 MW by 2012. And by 2016, its capacity should stand increased to over 75,000 MW. Notably, NTPC's cash generation too, estimated at over Rs 10,000 crore in FY08 (and likely to grow at over 10 per cent annually), is sufficient to fund its growth plans, with little contribution from loans.
This gap in the valuations not only exists vis-à-vis NTPC, but to a large extent with other players as well. So, either RPL is over valued or the other power utility stocks are under-valued. Notably, as other stocks are catching up, at this point in time, based on historical valuation methods (price to book-value), all of them appear to be over-valued.
Says Srinivas Macha, vice president, Aranca, a global investment and research service provider, "In India, there seems little justification for such rich valuations as there is very little to show by way of performance. All the issues that dog the power sector in India such as high technical and commercial losses at 50-60% -- among the highest anywhere in the world, less than 50% of realisation of all power that is generated, inept state-run utilities with poor record of recovery, populist measures such as subsidies and so on, persist." While things are improving, it's still a long way to go.

Growth story
There are other things that seem to partly support the rising valuations. For one, the power sector is now being perceived as a growth sector, especially after many power projects have started to roll. In each of the last three five-year plans viz. 1992-97, 1997-2002 and 2002-07, the average total capacity addition has been 51.33 per cent of targeted capacity.
But, in the current plan (2007-12), key plant equipment (boiler, turbines and generators) for over 60% of the planned addition of 78,577 MW has already been ordered. So, there is greater visibility in terms of what is aimed and what is likely to be achieved. These developments too are playing positively on stock valuations, as it should result in higher earnings growth for companies.
Among other key fundamental changes that are responsible for the rally in the stocks of power utilities, says Amitabh Chakraborty, president, equity, Religare Securities, "The power utility stocks have been re-rated because of huge demand-supply mismatch and increased attention from the government. Utility returns were earlier capped and linked to the bank rate. So, there were no incentives to perform. Now, there is potential to earn higher returns by setting up merchant plants. Secondly, the ultra-mega power plants provide scale of economies for new power generation companies, and gas availability has also improved. Overall, all this is good news."
Adds Krishna Kumar, fund manager and head of research, Sundaram BNP Paribas Mutual Fund, says "developments such as better fuel linkages, de-blocking of the coal mines for the private and public sector power generation companies and allowing merchant power generation, have improved the outlook of these companies."
Not to forget, India is a power deficit country, especially when it comes to the energy requirement of the country. In the light of rising GDP thus, there is a long way for power generation companies to scale up their businesses. This has also led the private players to share the growth, and their participation is seen rising.
Merchant power
The focus on merchant power, where power producers can earn higher returns compared to the traditional 14 per cent RoE, is also viewed as a key development, as it provides greater incentives to set up capacities.
With respect to merchant power, power producers can sell power at market determined prices, which in current scenario, may go up to as much as Rs 7 per unit on spot-basis, as compared with Rs 1.50-2.50 per unit, thanks to the huge demand-supply gap.
On the flip side, while the equation looks favourable now, it could change in a situation where supply exceeds demand and, buyers refuse to pay a high premium. Secondly, since the profitability will depend on market dynamics, besides, offtake commitment and timely payment by the buyer (of power), the lending community (banks, institutions, etc) too needs to be comfortable with lending to such projects.
Simply because, in case of merchant power plants, the risk will tend to be relatively higher. And due to such reasons, analysts believe that it will be difficult for any company to have an exposure of more than 15-20 per cent of their power generation portfolio, in merchant power plants.
Says an analyst, "For a company like NTPC, dedicating a 2,000 MW plant on merchant basis seems possible, as it has a strong balance sheet and equally robust profits, which can be used to service the debt, should anything go wrong. But, for a smaller company, debt servicing could become an issue in such an event."
In the best case scenario (and considering a RoE of 25 per cent for merchant power plants), the blended RoE is unlikely to go beyond 17 per cent. In short, profits are unlikely to rise significantly, purely based on this factor alone and, will hinge largely on the fresh addition to existing capacity.
Is the power run over?
While there's no doubt that these various developments are positive for the sector, the run up in share prices also suggests that the market seems to have already factored in the growth that is expected to accrue over three to five years from now.
But, there are many who continue to be bullish on the sector, Says Amitabh Chakraborty, "We are positive on the sector." While some others believe that current valuations are either fair or on the higher side, they also suggest that further moves will depend on the listing of RPL and subsequent moves.
As per analysts estimates, factoring in the future growth plans of the bigger companies, the price to book-value for NTPC works out to around 2 times, while for Tata Power its about 1.8 times and for Reliance Energy (only power business) its about 1.6. These are close to fair values as per traditional valuation methods.
To sum up, in the short-to-medium term, there is little upside, if any, left from here on. But, going forward (long run), further upsides should come based on events including companies securing new projects, companies reporting satisfactory progress with regards existing projects and the government continuing to give attention to the sector.