Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Bharat Oman Refineries to go ahead with IPO plans

Bharat Oman Refineries Ltd, a joint venture between Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Oman Oil Company Ltd, is all set to go ahead with its proposed IPO plan, a top company official said here.

BORL is implementing a 6-million tonnes per annum (mtpa) greenfield refinery at Bina, Madhya Pradesh.

"The company is preparing for its IPO, but it's not immediate. We are yet to get our final clearance from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). We are meeting some queries from SEBI," Bharat Petroleum Chairman and Managing Director Ashok Sinha told reporters here.

"We are not in a hurry to float our IPO. We will take it as and when we feel comfortable," Sinha said.

BPCL's Bina refinery will be commissioned by December 2009 and will help the company meet its requirements in central and northern India, he said.

BORL has spent Rs 9,275 crore for the Bina project and has completed 75 per cent of the construction. The estimated capital outlay for the project is Rs 10,378 crore.

The project is proposed to be financed in a debt/equity mix of 1.6:1.

Both BPCL and Oman Oil Company Limited (OOCL) have contributed Rs 75.5-crore each towards the equity share capital of the company.

With OOCL having decided to limit its equity contribution to the present level of Rs 75.50 crore, BPCL has, with the approval of the government, decided to enhance its equity contribution in BORL up to 50 per cent, amounting to Rs 1,996-crore.
 
Via Economic Times

Monday, September 22, 2008

GSPC IPO Coming soon

Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. (GSPC) plans to raise about US$1bn (about Rs45bn) from an initial public offering (IPO) of its equity shares, a senior company official said. "Our plan is to have the IPO by November but it may extend to December-January," the official, who did not want to be named, said on the sidelines of a conference in New Delhi. GSPC is planning to sell about 10-20% equity through the IPO. The company has mandated DSP Merrill Lynch, JM Financial, Kotak, SBI Caps and Citibank to manage the IPO, the company official said.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Grey Market - Chemcel Biotech, 20 Microns

20 MICRONS Ltd. 50 to 55 8 to 10

Chemcel Biotech Ltd. 16 4 to 5

Monday, September 8, 2008

Grey Market - 20 Microns, Chemcel Biotech

20 MICRONS Ltd. 50 to 55 7 to 9

Chemcel Biotech Ltd. 16 4 to 5

Friday, September 5, 2008

20 Microns IPO Analysis

Promoted by Chandresh S Parikh and seven others, 20 Microns was incorporated in Gujarat in 1987 to manufacture white non-metallic minerals in India. The company is a leading manufacturer of micronized mineral products including micronised ground calcium carbonate, china and calcined clay, talc, dolomite, silica, mica and whiting (calcite and calcium carbonate), which finds application in the paints, plastics, rubber, ceramic, paper and other industries as functional fillers.

The mining resources and plants are strategically located in Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. With eight manufacturing facilities located in different strategic regions that are closer to its key markets, 20 Microns also has four mines of ground minerals, ensuring unhindered supply of raw materials at lower cost. The four mines comprise 72 hectors of mining area and permission has been sought for further 1,000 hectors of additional mining area.

With a turnover of 1,70,000 tonnes per annum, 20 Micron is a leader in white minerals including ultra-fine minerals ranging from 20 microns to 2 microns of particle size and is planning to introduce sub-micronized grades and nano-additives. Sub-microns and nano-additives are processed non-metallic minerals used as import substitute in various chemicals and polymers in paints, PVC pipes, paper, cement and ceramics. The company's clients include Finolex Cables, Berger Paints, Asian Paints, Goodlass Nerolac Paints, ICI India and Pidilite Industries.

Higher value added technology intensive, import substitute product like sub microns will be introduced in existing capacities at Vadadla (Gujarat), Bhuj (Gujarat) Tirunelveli (Tamil Nadu) and Udaipur (Rajasthan). Finer and pure material with size up to 0.7 microns will be produced at the expanded facilities.

Strengths

  • Has mining rights in four different locations leased from the Union government for 20 years, thus enabling sourcing of raw materials at lower cost.
  • Has a diversified product mix catering to various industries, thus providing a hedge against any downturn in any industry or product.
  • R&D capabilities have been used to manufacture innovative value-added products such as sub-microns and nano additives.

Weakness

  • Various pending legal proceedings related to Central excise, sales tax and labour could have a monetary impact of more than Rs 10.50 crore--a significant sum compared with the size of operations.
  • Faces extreme competition from the unorganised sector/tiny sector, which is able to supply materials at lower cost due to exemption from excise duty.

Valuation

The issue comprises fresh issue of 16,75,000 equity shares and an offer for sale of 26,75,632 equity shares by the selling shareholders (Gujarat Venture Capital Fund 1995).

20 Microns has set a price band of Rs 50-Rs 55 per equity share of Rs 10 each, translating into a PE of 15.2x at the lower price band and 16.7x at the higher price band, based on the earning per share of Rs 3.3 in the year ended March 2008 (FY 2008) on post-IPO equity. Though there are no strictly comparable companies, one can refer to the valuations of English India Clay and Ashapura Minechem for assessing the kind of P/E 20 Microns can command. Currently, English India Clay is trading at P/E of 16 and Ashapura Minechem is trading at P/E of 7.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Resurgere Mines and Minerals IPO Analysis

Promoted by Subhash A Sharma and his wife, Resurgere Mines and Minerals (RMMIL) is in the business of extraction, processing and sale of mineral products and exploration and development of mining assets. The product range includes various forms of iron ore such as Lump ore, Size ore, Calibrated Lump ore (CLO) and iron ore fines etc. and bauxite. The company sells all these products domestically except iron ore fines, which the company exports to China.

The company currently operates in Nuagaon, Kendujhargarh district (Reserve - 12.37 million tonnes) and Maharajpur, Mayurbhanj district (Reserve - 42.08 million tonnes) in Orissa and is expected to commence operations at Tatiba mine in Singhbhum district of Jharkhand (Reserve - 20.37 million tonnes) in the near future. The company has entered in to long-term contracts for these mines, Nuagoan, Tatiba and Maharajpur, with the leaseholders for raising and purchasing of iron ore. All the three mines carry high quality iron ore of about 62% - 64% Fe content.

The present operations at the Nuagoan Mines and the Jharkhand Mines are being carried out under deemed renewal provisions since the respective Mining Leases have expired, prior to the expiry whereof the respective applications for renewals of the Mining Leases have been made to the State Government and are pending consideration.

The company has also made an application to the Collector of Sindhudurg district for the grant of an iron ore mining lease over an area of 108.77 hectares in village Banda, District Sindhudurg in Maharashtra, wherein company's application is under process. The company has also applied for two prospecting leases of iron ore in Banda region to the Collector of Sindhudurg district.

Furthermore the company is also engaged in merchant export of iron ore fines to China.

Through its wholly owned subsidiary M/s. Warana Minerals Private (WMPL), the company holds 60% interest in a registered partnership firm, Shri Warana Minerals which is engaged in the business of mining bauxite ore under the 30 year mining lease with respect to a bauxite mine situated in Yelwan Jugai, Maharashtra.

The mining assets of the Company, except Banda mine, have cumulative estimated reserve of 74.82 million tonnes of iron ore and 4.92 milllion tonnes of bauxite as certified by Central Mining Research Institute.

RMMIL proposes to enter the capital markets with a public issue of 4450000 Equity shares of Rs 10 each through 100% book building process. The price band has been fixed at Rs 263 to Rs 272 per Equity share of Rs 10 each.

The Company proposes to utilize the net proceeds of the Issue to part finance its plan for purchase of Plant and Machinery valued at Rs 128.56 crore for setting up of its own extraction and crushing facilities at the mines and purchase of 6 railway rakes worth Rs 116.36 crore to set up own logistics infrastructure facilities, besides meeting margin money requirement for working capital (Rs 18.25 crore), Provision for contingencies and Pre Operative expenses (Rs 8.24 crore), General corporate purpose (Rs 10 crore) and Issue expenses.

Besides the proceeds of the issue, the Company proposes to finance the cost through term loans of Rs 86 crore to be raised from banks, Rs 43 crore through Private Equity funding from Merrill Lynch International and Rs 13.75 crore through Pre-IPO allotment.

Merrill Lynch International holds 3000000 Equity shares, India Business Excellence Fund-I holds 910000 Equity shares, IL&FS Trust Co. (Trustees of Business Excellence Trust-India Business Excellence Fund) hold 402500 Equity shares, Mr Motilal Oswal hold 250000 Equity shares and Mr. Raamdeo Agarwal holds 200000 Equity Shares in the Company.

On Dec.'07, Merrill Lynch International has been allotted 3000000 shares of the Company for a total consideration of Rs 63 crore (Rs 210 per share). On Feb'08, IL&FS Trust Co. (Trustees of Business Excellence Trust-India Business Excellence Fund) and India Business Excellence Fund I subscribed to 550000 Equity Shares at Rs 250 per Equity Share for a total consideration of Rs 13.75 crore. Mr Motilal Oswal hold 250000 Equity shares and Mr. Ramdeo Agarwal holds 200000 Equity Shares in the Company at a price of Rs 210 per share

Strengths

  • The iron ore industry is currently in the midst of favorable conditions, on the back of robust demand scenario. However prices are already high and may be near the peak of the cycle.

Weaknesses

  • The company is operating on mines wherein the lease has either already expired or is about to expire in a short period of time. The mining leases of Nuagaon and Tatibha have already expired, while that of Maharajpur is due for expiry in April 2009. Even though the applications for renewal have already been made, the possibility of non-renewal in favour of existing leaseholders cannot be ruled out.
  • The company's selling strategy has been to sell only in the spot market and it sells most of its output to traders, hence, it currently does not enjoy any long-term relationship with any of its buyers. This also exposes the company to volatility in spot prices.

Valuation

At a price band of Rs 263– 272, RMMIL's P/E works out to 11.3 – 11.7 times FY 2008 earning on post-IPO equity. Sesa Goa, which is a leading company within the sector, trades at P/E of 8.4 times FY 2008 earnings.

Austral Coke & Projects - IPO

Investors can avoid investment in the initial public offering (IPO) of Austral Coke and Projects Ltd., considering the high execution risks and cyclical nature of the business, though prospects for volume growth are bright.

At Rs 196 (upper end of the price band), the offer is priced at 13-15 times the expected 2007-08 earnings per share, computed on the post-offer equity base. This is almost on a par with the valuation enjoyed by Gujarat NRE Coke, which has a larger scale of operations now.

The Kolkata-based Austral Coke is mainly into the manufacture of low ash metallurgical coke (LAMC) and refractories, apart from equipment rental and textile trading.

The company plans to use the IPO proceeds to finance its expansion in coke manufacturing facilities, acquisition of coal mining licences in India and abroad, prepaying debt and setting up an 8 MW captive power plant.

The expansion project is proposed to be financed almost entirely through this offer. Only about 2 per cent of the total outstanding debt is sought to be pre-paid through the proceeds of the IPO.
Financials

Austral Coke registered revenues of Rs 274 crore, with net profits of Rs 35.17 crore in the 11-months ended February 2008 (full year numbers are not disclosed).

However, only 45 per cent of these revenues (Rs 124 crore) came from manufacturing operations, the rest came from textile trading, equipment rentals and other businesses.

The company's track record in coke manufacture is relatively short and in the three years since 2004-05, the company managed revenue CAGR of 88 per cent in the manufacturing business, while net profits (before extra ordinary items) expanded from Rs 2 crore to about Rs 35.2 crore.

Demand potential for LAMC appears quite good in the light of the ongoing capacity expansion in the steel and cement sectors. The domestic demand for the product has been met significantly by imports, with Gujarat NRE Coke being the only large domestic player in this business.

However, the business is cyclical, with coke prices being highly sensitive to demand from user industries. Prices of coking coal, a key input, are also subject to sharp swings, making for a volatile earnings record for companies in this business.

According to the offer document, the company, which is now producing 1.75 lakh mtpa (metric tonnes per annum) of coke has recently added another 2 lakh mtpa in 2008. This IPO is set to fund another expansion of 1.50 lakh mtpa.

The rapid scaling up of capacities within a short period poses execution risks, as results of even the second expansion are not yet available. Austral has entered into an MoU with a group company — Gremach Infrastructure Equipment & Projects Ltd — for prospecting, mining and commercial activities in Mozambique.
Business risks

Apart from generic issues such as cyclicality of the met coke and steel industries and fluctuations in the international prices of inputs, there are company specific challenges such as lack of forward integration and execution risks. In the coal mining and equipment rental businesses, there are potential conflicts of interest with group companies also engaged in this line of activity.

The proposed coke project site is in red category zone of the Pollution Control Board. The offer document states that in the case of any environmental/other policy issue, the management may decide about the relocation of the project site.
Issue Details

The issue opened on August 7 and closes on August 13 and the issue size is Rs 119-142 crore. The price band is Rs 164-196.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Grey Market Premiums - Austral Coke

 Vishal Information Technologies 140 to 150 3 to 5

NU TEK India Ltd. 170 to 192 6 to 8

Austral Coke & Projects 164 to 196 20 to 22

Reliance Infratel IPO to be deferred

Anil Ambani group firm Reliance Infratel is likely to defer its IPO plans as Sebi's go ahead for the issue is set to expire soon, making it the third major IPO deferment after that of commodity exchange MCX and mutual fund house UTI AMC.
Sebi had issued observation on the IPO of Reliance Infratel, the telecom infrastructure division of Reliance Communications, on 12 May. As per the regulations, a company is required to close the IPO within 90 days of issuance of Sebi's observation on the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP)—the period which ends on 11 August .
When contacted Reliance Infratel officials declined to comment.
Meanwhile, Reliance ADAG chairman Anil Ambani on 31 July had said, "We have received the approvals on the red herring prospectus... The volatility in global and Indian capital markets is what we are watching. A decision would be taken at an appropriate time."
"When we find an appropriate time, I am sure that we will proceed both with Globalcom and Reliance Infratel," Ambani added.
Reliance Infratel builds, owns and operates telecom towers and related assets at designated sites. It also offers these passive telecom infrastructure assets on a shared basis to wireless service providers and other communications service providers under long-term contracts.
Earlier, the IPO of MCX and that of UTI Asset Management, were deferred due to volatile market conditions.
MCX is believed to be reviving the process of its initial public offer and may file a new draft prospectus with the market regulator Sebi by the middle of this month.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Grey Market - Nu Tek India, Vishal Information Technolgoies

Vishal Information Technologies 140 to 150 4 to 6

NU TEK India Ltd. 170 to 192 14 to 16

Monday, July 21, 2008

Vishal Information Technologies IPO Analysis

Investors can avoid the initial public offering of Vishal Information Technologies, a company delivering digitisation and E-Publishing services, considering the high valuation that the offer demands and the inherent business risks, given the rough macro-environment.

At Rs 150 (upper end of price band), the offer is priced 14 times the company's 2007-08 per share earnings on post-offer equity base.

This is at a premium to most BPO/KPO players in the mid and small tier space, which have more diversified service offerings than Vishal Information.

Heavy competition in all segments of its operations, a long receivables cycle, lack of diversification in its service portfolio and client concentration are key risks to the business.

Vishal Information delivers digitisation, e-publishing and digital library services to publishers.

The company has also been able to create digital library formatting for visually challenged people to access books by downloading text from the Internet.

In addition, Vishal has a subsidiary that handles back-end accounting and administrative services for financial services clients.

Vishal Information's revenues over the last five years have grown at a compounded annual rate of 24.1 per cent to Rs 40.9 crore for 2007-08, while revenues have grown at a rate of 24 per cent to Rs 12.4 crore during the same period.
Business Risks

The absence of diversification from the core business makes the company vulnerable to vagaries of publishing houses' outsourcing schedules. Competition exists for the company from three sets of players. Large companies that have a diversified KPO services basket in addition to publication services such as RR Donnelley (Office Tiger), Hexaware Technologies and TCS; independent KPO players such as Scientific Publishing and Ninestar Information Technologies that specialise in digitisation; and captive units of publication houses.

In this light, pressure may be on billing rates with clients, and with a rough macro environment, it may only get tougher to stay competitive and maintain margins.

Cushion from diversification in the form of voice and other transaction based services that BPOs/KPOs provide across several verticals is not available to Vishal Information. Technology upgrade may not be as easily possible for a smaller player such as Vishal when compared to well-entrenched players with deeper pockets.

Scalability has also been a problem, a fact supported by the sedate growth rates even during the outsourcing boom phase of 2003-07. Now, in a tough environment with companies cutting on outsourcing budget, the company may feel the pinch even more.

The company also has high concentration risks with its top three clients accounting for 56 per cent of revenues. In the absence of many long-term contracts or continuously large orders, the company may be subject to fluctuation in results.

Vishal receives its payments for projects only over a six-eight month period, after its clients successfully upload the completed publications on their Web sites.

This large timeline in receivables would significantly increase working capital requirements.

In a rising interest rate scenario, bank borrowings for such purposes would significantly increase expenses on this count.

Considering these aspects, investors may avoid this initial public offering

Grey Market - Vishal Information Technologies

 Somi Conveyor Belting 35 3 to 5

Birla Cotsyn (India) 12 to 14 Discount

Vishal Information Technologies 140 to 150 7 to 10

Monday, July 14, 2008

Grey Market Discounts - Premiums

 KSK Energy Ventures 240 Discount

Somi Conveyor Belting 35 4 to 5

Birla Cotsyn (India) 12 to 14 Discount

Monday, June 16, 2008

Grey Market - Sejal Architectural Glass, Archid Ply Industries

 Bafna Pharmaceutical 40 7 to 10

Avon Weighing 10 5 to 6

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd. 105 to 115 18 to 20

First Winners Ind. Ltd. 115 to 125 3 to 5

Archid Ply Ind. 70 to 80 6 to 8

Lotus Eye Care Hospital 38 to 42 3 to 4

Lotus Eye Care Hospital IPO review

Investors can consider investing in the initial public offering of Lotus Eye Care Hospital (Lotus) with a two-three year perspective. The business of running eye-care hospitals is resource intensive and highly skill-dependent but there is potential given the rise in diseases related to eyes.

At present, Lotus has its super-specialty hospital at Peelamedu (Coimbatore) and three other network hospitals at Tirupur, Salem and R S Puram (Coimbatore). This gives it nine operation theatres and three LASIK equipment along with total bed strength of 120, excluding eye-camp beds.
Growth

Given the superior operational as well as profitability metrics displayed by Lotus in the last three years and experienced management, the company could be expected to leverage the strong demand for quality eye-care, albeit within its region-specific limitations.

Earnings could be ramped up when Lotus sets up two primary eye care (preliminary) units in Bangalore and one in Chennai, secondary eye care units each at Coimbatore (R S Puram), Tirupur and Karur, and a tertiary care ( for handling complicated eye diseases) unit at Salem.
Valuation

Lotus' Rs 55 crore capex plan is expected to be funded with IPO proceeds (Rs 42 crore), internal accruals (Rs 3 crore) and debt (sanctioned term loans aggregating to Rs 10 crore).

The fruits of a significant portion of the project are expected to show up only from September 2009.

At the price band of Rs 38-42 per share, the issue is priced at about 19-21 times the likely FY10 per share (post-issue) earnings.

While the comparatively small size and limited scale of Lotus may seem as a concern when seen in light of its listed peers such as Kovai Medical Centre and Hospital, and Dr Agarwal's Eye Hospital — Lotus' focus on eye care (operations are mostly day-care) is expected to help it maintain higher margins, as well as profitability.
Business

Lotus earns 60-65 per cent of its revenues from surgeries and is expected to gain from the demand for private medical care providers in the ophthalmology space. Industry-wise, cataract surgery, refractive surgery and glaucoma procedures account for 90 per cent of the surgical operations in the eye-care space.

With the use of superior technologies such as LASIK (Laser-Assisted In Situ Keratomileusis) and Zyoptix, companies such as Lotus have been able to enjoy better margins and high rates of success.

The network of primary and secondary eye-care units are expected to ramp up revenues through own primary care referrals and individual practitioners, while the two tertiary care hospitals would ideally deal with more complicated cases.
Threats

Risks to the offer include the expected competition from local speciality hospitals operating in the eye-care space, longer time-periods to complete capex, higher than anticipated depletion of margins, appointment as well as retention of qualified personnel at new and old units. Any adverse developments to the image of the business may also present risks to our recommendation.

The offer, managed by Keynote Corporate Services, closes on June 17.

via BL

Archidply Industries IPO Review

Investors with a high risk appetite can consider investing in the initial public offer of Archidply Industries. This wood panel and decorative surfacing products manufacturer operates in an industry that is highly unorganised and fraught with regulatory issues. Archidply, however, inspires confidence through its presence in relatively high-end and more customised interior products and its environment-friendly measures to procure sustained sources of raw materials as well as make eco-friendly products that are within the regulator's permissible ambit.

The offer price band of Rs 70-80 discounts the per share earnings for FY2008 (on the pre-issue equity base) by 7-8 times. While its larger peer Greenply trades at similar valuations, Archidply's expansion plans through the offer are likely to be earnings accretive over the next two years. The pricing also appears justified given the superior profit margins and return on equity enjoyed by the company.
On the business and offer

Archidply manufactures engineered interior products used in commercial and residential buildings. The company started its manufacturing activities after the merger of a promoter group company — Mysore Chipboard — with itself.

Archidply's products include a wide range of specialised plywood such as marine and fire retardant plywood, particle boards, decorative laminates and veneers. The company plans to raise about Rs 50 crore for setting up a new manufacturing facility in Karnataka and to set up a medium density fibreboard facility in its existing unit in Uttarakhand.
Sustainable business

The business of plywood has high uncertainties due to the large number of unorganised players; there are also regulatory curbs in production of environmentally less-friendly products and in sourcing of raw materials. Archidply appears well placed to tackle these issues.

For one, the company does not restrict its products to retail customers alone. Its clients include corporates, architects as well as modular furniture makers such as Godrej and Featherlite. Its products are also slightly premium given the sophisticated combination of waterproof, fire resistant as well as low gas emission plywood. We believe that the above products would address a more brand and quality conscious market that is different from the segment that unorganised plywood players cater to.

The company also plans to move to value-add products such as ready-to-assemble furniture components and designer doors. These products appear to be aimed at tapping the huge real estate activity in the commercial space. With tight deadlines for construction and a need to optimally utilise space, these products could well be in demand.

On the raw materials front, the company procures renewable plantation timber grown in coffee estates and farm grown plantation timber, thus preventing any environmental curb on its raw material source.
Safeguarding capacities

While the company's capacity addition may appear uncalled for, given that it is yet to fully utilise its existing capacities, the move appears to be a safeguard measure.

The Supreme Court has placed restrictions on issue of new licences for manufacture of plywood and other wood-based products.

This appears to be the reason for Archidply's move to ramp up capacities before its licence expires. The restriction also poses a higher entry barrier for even organised players wanting to expand in new places.

The present scenario is, therefore, likely to ensure less competition for organised players such as Archidply. On the flip side, the company may suffer if the increased capacities do not find demand.
Superior margins

Archidply's revenue grew at a compounded annual rate of 89 per cent over the last two years to Rs 147 crore in FY 2008. This places the company next to top players such as Greenply Industries and Century Plyboard. The company's operating and net profit margins at 18.5 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively, are however far superior to those of peers.

Archidply could be incurring lesser transportation costs compared to its peers as it has an integrated facility in the North and the South (catering to respective markets) as against most other players who have facilities in the North and eastern India.

Further, Archidply appears to have had an early start in the high-potential particleboard market. This product uses plywood by-product and agri fibre as raw material and is more cost effective and environment friendly. Equipped with capacities (for this product) higher than even Greenply's, the company could have scored higher margins on this front as well.

Archidply's market share at 8 per cent still remains low, despite being the third largest organised player in terms of revenue. Market penetration clearly poses a challenge. The company is yet to get licence for starting the medium density fibre plant for which a part of the offer proceeds would be utilised. Given that it qualifies under the norms for the same, the risks may not be high.

The small market cap of Rs 155-175 crore (at the offer price) could subject the stock to high volatility under the present market conditions. Investors can consider exiting their holdings if their target return is met shortly after listing. The offer closes on June 17.

via BL

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

All Grey Market Premiums

 Niraj Cement 190 Discount

Bafna Pharmaceutical 40 5 to 7

Avon Weighing 10 4 to 4.50

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd. 105 to 115 20 to 22

First Winners Ind. Ltd. 120 to 130 7 to 9

Archid Ply Ind. 70 to 80 6 to 8

Lotus Eye Care Hospital 38 to 42 3 to 5

Archidply Industries IPO Analysis

Promoted by Deen Dayal Daga, Shyam D. Daga, Rajiv D. Daga and Assam Timber Products, Archidply Industries was incorporated in 1995. It has modern manufacturing facilities for wood panel products and decorative surfacing products in Rudrapur (Uttarakhand) and Mysore (Karnataka).

The combined production capacity of plywood and block boards (4mm) is 1,28,00,000 square meters (sq mt), plain particleboards (4mm) 1,12,50,000 sq mt, pre-laminated particleboard (4mm), 99,00,000 sq mt, decorative veneers (4mm) 37,50,000 sq. mt, and decorative laminates of 12,00,000 sheets.

The range of comprehensive engineered interior products include plywoods such as marine plywood; fire retardant plywood; shuttering plywood; densified film faced plywood; BWR and MR plywood; lamyply and lamyboard; block boards and flush doors of BWR and MR grade; particle boards such as plain, veneered and pre-laminated both in interior and exterior grades; decorative laminates; and decorative veneers such as teak, natural exotic veneers, reconstituted veneers and dyed veneers.

The brand, Archidply, has been positioned in the premium segment of the wood panel and decorative surfacing products. Brands for the middle segment (Sec B) are Silvi and premium plywood products Pureply.

The marketing network includes 16 marketing offices, 61 distributors and stockiest and 586 authorised dealers.

A new manufacturing facility of plain particle boards, pre laminated board and decorative plywood, to be set up at a cost of Rs 37.67 crore at Chintamani in Karnataka, is to be commissioned by October 2008. A new manufacturing capacity for medium density fibreboard (MDF), to be set up at a cost of Rs 26.18 crore at Rudrapur, will be commissioned by August 2009. The total capital requirement is Rs 83.04 crore inclusive of future operating and working capital requirement. As such, Rs 46.31 crore to Rs 52.92 crore is to be raised in the price band of Rs 70 to Rs 80 per share through an initial public offering (IPO). Term loan will constitute Rs 28 crore.

Strengths

Enjoys various tax benefits. The Rudrapur unit has received approval for thermal energy generation from renewable biomass, making eligible for 24,659 certified emission reductions (CER) annually.

Weaknesses

Faces intense competition from unbranded products from the unorganised sector of the wood-based industry. There are many strong local brands,too. Moreover some organised players are much larger than Archidply.

Yet to receive licence to manufacture MDF at Rudrapur.

Valuation

Archidply has set a price band of Rs 70 to Rs 80 per equity share of Rs 10 face value. At the lower price band, the P/E would be 10.3 times and at the upper price band, the P/E would be 11.8 times the EPS for financial year ended March 2008 (FY 2008) on post-issue equity of Rs 22 crore. In the decorative wood-based/ laminates segment, comparable companies such as Greenply industries, Uniply Industries and Novopan Industries have TTM P/E of around 8, 6.6 and 8.1, respectively.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Grey Market - Lotus Eye Care, Sejal Architectural

 Niraj Cement 190 Discount

Bafna Pharmaceutical 40 7 to 8

Avon Weighing 10 3 to 4

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd. 105 to 115 18 to 20

First Winners Ind. Ltd. 120 to 130 12 to 14

Archid Ply Ind. 70 to 80 8 to 10

Lotus Eye Care Hospital 38 to 42 4 to 6

Monday, June 2, 2008

Grey Market - Bafna, Anus, Niraj Cement, Gokul Refoils

Gokul Refoils 195 8 to 10

Anus Laboratories 210 40 to 45

Niraj Cement 175 to 190 5 to 7

Bafna Pharmaceutical 40 10 to 12

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Grey Market - Bafna, Niraj Cement, Anus Labs

 Gokul Refoils 195 10 to 12

Anus Laboratories 210 32 to 35

Niraj Cement 175 to 190 12 to 15

Bafna Pharmaceutical 40 10 to 12

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Niraj Cement Structurals

Niraj Cement Structurals (NCSL) is a small-sizes construction company focusing on the road segment. It also makes pre-cast paver blocks. Sales of paver-blocks account less than 0.5% of total sales.

The construction contracts business model involves acting as main contractor, contracts through joint venture (JV) and subcontractor. Currently, the order portfolio is spread across Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The proceeds of the issue will be used to fund acquisition of capital equipment worth Rs 20.95 crore and working capital requirement amounting Rs 18.17 crore.

Strengths

The current order book is about Rs 660.29 crore. Out of this, its share of work totals Rs 477.48 crore, which translates to 5 times its FY 2008 revenue. The projects are to be executed over nine to 24 months.

Despite focusing only on the road sector, the operating profit margin was a strong 17.7% in the year ending March 2008 (FY 2008). OPM were 16.7% in FY 2007 and 16.3% in FY 2006. This is way above the normal 8-10% of margin available for players focused on road projects.

Weaknesses

As the focus is solely on road development, lacks diversification in other areas of construction.

In the past, defaulted on payment of interest and repayment of loan to various banks / financial institutions.

Sundry debtors stood at 103.45 crore in FY 2008. This represents about 111.4% of its sales for FY 2008. To fund this, secured and unsecured loans of Rs 18.92 crore and Rs 19.98 crore were raised by March 2007 and Rs 30.86 crore and Rs 58.49 crore by March 2008. The high debts are attributed to delay in receipts from government and also from principal contractors. As a result, interest cost has been racing ahead from 3% of sales in FY 2006 to about 5.5% of sales in FY 2008.

Valuation

Sales grew by 16% in FY 2008. Net profit, however, stood higher by only 2%, limited by higher interest cost and tax incidence. EPS on post-IPO equity stands at Rs 6.3. On the asking price of Rs 175-Rs 190, the PE ratio works out to about 27.8 times FY 2008 earning at the lower price band and 30.2 times at the upper price band. In contrast, peer players such as C & C Construction, Roman Tarmat, PBA Infrastructure, Valecha Engineering trade at 9 to 12 times their trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Niraj Cement Structurals IPO Analysis

Investors can avoid the Initial Public Offering of road building contractor, Niraj Cement Structurals. The asking price of Rs 175-190 appears stiff, given the small scale and limited scope of the company's business, fluctuation in profit growth and high risks specific to the company.

At the offer band, the price-earnings multiple works out to 19-21 times its FY-2008 earnings on the pre-IPO equity base.

The asking price also discounts its estimated FY-2009 per share earnings (post equity expansion) by at least 18 times. Peers of similar size trade at a considerable discount.
On the company and offer

Niraj is a road construction company with most of the projects in the form of sub-contracts from principal contractors. While the company also manufactures cement structurals, this business forms a negligible portion of the total revenue.

The company plans to raise about Rs 60 crore through this IPO and seeks to list the stock at the Bombay Stock Exchange. This would expand the current equity capital by 45 per cent.

The offer proceeds are to be utilised towards purchase of capital equipment and for meeting working-capital requirements.
High volume on the cards

Niraj currently boasts of a massive order-book of Rs 660 crore, amounting to seven times its 2007-08 revenue of Rs 92 crore. This is likely to provide impetus to the revenue growth witnessed by the company.

However, the limited time-frame available for completion of the projects poses a challenge to its execution capabilities. Most of the orders need to be completed within a 12-20 month period. Agreed that the company's plan (through the IPO proceeds) to increase capacities of its Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) batching plant would hasten the input availability, at least in the projects sites where they are installed. Transporting the RMC units between project sites may pose logistics problems.

In addition, the RMC batching plant planned would have a capacity of 1,44,000 cu. m. of RMC per year as against 20,000 cu.m consumed by it in FY-2008. This essentially implies that despite high orders in hand, the company may have excess capacities after captive consumption.

The sale or lease of the same may not be easy given that the market size for RMC remains limited in India, apart from transportation costs involved. The capital expenditure to be incurred hence holds risk of high costs.
Burdened by interest and taxes

The company's profit margins have remained in line with other road builders such as C&C Constructions and Roman Tarmat. However, net profits have witnessed a decline since 2005-2006.

Despite surge in revenues, mounting interest costs and taxes have dented the bottomline.

The mounting borrowing cost is reflected in the shrinking interest coverage ratio. While profits (before interest and taxes) covered the borrowing costs by fives times in 2006, the same ratio shrunk to 2.8 in the latest fiscal.

The company has further disclosed its default in payment of interest and repayment of loans to some of its lenders. Taxes have also seen an increase; this apart, the company has stated that it has been claiming deduction under Section 80-IA of the Income Tax Act, a benefit that is no longer available for contractors such as Niraj.

The offer document states that the company has not made any provisions for the additional tax burden either for the current year or for retrospective years from 2000. The provisioning and higher tax burden in future would hurt net profits.

Further, Niraj's sub-contract status has heightened its risks of non-payment from the principal contractor. Sundry debtors of Rs 103 crore, is higher than full year revenues for 2007-08, indicating legacy receivables and delay in collection.

This could lead to increased crunch in cash flows for the company. The offer is open from May 26-30.

Bafna Pharmaceuticals IPO Analysis

Scalability concerns, low profitability and presence in the highly competitive formulations business without a specific niche, peg up the risks associated with the Initial Public Offering of Bafna Pharmaceuticals.

The 27-year-old company is proposing to offer 40.05 per cent stake to the public and use the net issue proceeds (of Rs 23.55 crore) to mainly undertake brand-building in domestic and international markets, partly repay loans and procure R&D equipment.

The fixed offer price at Rs 40 per share, also does not leave much on the table for investors, as it discounts the 2007-08 (annualised) earnings per share of the company at 37 times, on the post-issue equity base.

The pricing appears stiff compared to similar sized players in the formulations business, as well as other entrenched players engaged in Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) — an area Bafna is targeting through its new facility at Grantlayon, near Chennai.

Though CRAMS is an exciting opportunity for Indian companies, Bafna's size does not instil the necessary confidence in its ability to quickly occupy a position of strength and profitability in this area.

Bafna has long experience catering to less-regulated countries such as Sri Lanka but only limited experience in carrying out CRAMS in regulated markets.

Though these factors argue against an investment in the IPO, the stock may be worth reviewing, post-listing, with a longer financial record.
Business profile

Bafna Pharmaceuticals' profits have grown by 12 per cent on the back of 23 per cent growth in net sales on a compounded basis across five years.

The company now draws all of its revenues from its manufacturing facility at Madhavaram, near Chennai; a scale-up in revenues and margins could be expected once the Grantlayon unit gets MHRA accreditation, allowing it to enter the regulated markets of the UK and other European countries.

The company has signed a five-year agreement to supply Simvastatin — a drug to lower cholesterol levels — to a UK company.

However, it will be a little unreasonable to expect Bafna's Grantlayon unit to make considerable contribution to both topline and bottomline over the next 12-15 months because the business may take time to scale up its client base.

This could put pressure on existing financials as planned brand-building exercises, consisting of significant deployment of human resources in marketing, would see a bulge in expenditure from hereon, thereby shrinking already low operating margins (7 per cent).

Bafna displays high client concentration (top five contribute 80 per cent) and product dependence (top five contribute 65 per cent of sales) — typical of smaller entities.

Bafna plans to further scale up domestic business (exports contributed 30 per cent in last nine months ended December 2007) and launch its own brands as well as cater to new therapeutic areas (life-style diseases).

Challenges to these will arise from the substantial presence of large established players and Bafna's small scale of operations.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Stunner ! - IPO Rating - MCX India

CRISIL has assigned a CRISIL IPO Grade "5/5" (pronounced "five on five") to the proposed initial public offer of Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX). This grade indicates that the fundamentals of the issue are strong relative to other listed equity securities in India. However, this grade is not an opinion on whether the issue price is appropriate in relation to the issue fundamentals. The grade is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold the graded instrument, or a comment on the graded instrument's future market price or its suitability for a particular investor.

CRISIL expects MCX to maintain its dominant market position in the commodities market, backed by product innovation and strong technological capabilities. Currently, MCX enjoys market leadership, with a share of 77 per cent in volumes traded on commodities exchanges in India. The company has consciously focused on commodities such as bullion, energy and metals, which are benchmarked to international prices. The high liquidity in these commodities and the low impact costs (comparable to other leading exchanges), along with MCX's strong technological capability - aided by its association with the promoter, FTIL, a leader in exchange related technology - are expected to help the company maintain its competitive advantage.

MCX's profitability and return indicators have been strong in the past 4 years. Growth is likely to moderate in the short term due to the impact of the commodity transaction tax (CTT). However, in the medium term, MCX's strong market position and continuous focus on product innovation would act as growth drivers. In the long term, growth could be spurred by the introduction of new instruments (like options) and participation by institutional players, once the necessary regulatory changes are in place.

Mr Jignesh Shah, the founder and Non-Executive Vice Chairman and Mr Joseph Massey, the MD & CEO of MCX, have been the driving force behind the company's business growth and product innovation. MCX also benefits from a strong and experienced senior management team as well as a highly capable product innovation and development team.

About the company and the issue
Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Pvt Ltd was incorporated on April 19, 2002. The proposed IPO is in the form of an offer for sale of 4 million shares by the promoters and a fresh issue of 6 million shares. Subsequent to the IPO, the promoters' stake in the company will reduce to 26.1 per cent.

On September 26, 2003, MCX received permanent recognition from the Government of India for facilitating online trading, clearing and settlement operations for commodity futures markets across the country. MCX offers trading in 56 different commodities categorised into various market segments such as bullion, energy, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, oil and oil seeds, cereals, pulses, plantations, spices, fibre and others. The company has leadership position in bullion, energy and metals trading in India.

Of the company's total turnover, bullion accounts for 53 per cent, metals for 28 per cent, energy for 16 per cent and agricultural commodities account for the rest. Globally, MCX is the largest silver exchange, second-largest natural gas exchange, third-largest gold, crude oil and copper exchange in terms of number of contracts traded in each of these commodities. MCX was the first exchange to launch futures trading in steel, crude oil and plastics in India. The company has launched weather indices such as RAINDEX - to track the progress of monsoon rains in locations such as Mumbai, Indore and Jaipur - and also trading in carbon credits on the exchange. MCX was also the first exchange to initiate evening trading sessions to coincide with trading on international exchanges such as London, New York and other international markets. The company's initiative to constantly innovate and develop new products is expected to help increase volumes.

For the year ended March 31, 2007, MCX reported a net profit of Rs 930 million on a turnover of Rs 2.0 billion, as compared with a net profit of Rs 375 million and revenues of Rs 1.0 billion in the previous year.

Grey Market - Bafna, Gokul, Anus

 Gokul Refoils 175 to 195 14 to 15

Anus Laboratories 200 to 210 35 to 38

Bafna Pharmaceutical 40 6 to 8

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Grey Market - Anu's Laboratories, Gokul Refoils

 Gokul Refoils 175 to 195 20 to 25

Anus Laboratories 200 to 210 21 to 23

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Good news for IPO investors !

 Investors no longer have to wait for weeks for refund of their IPO application money.

The application money earmarked for an IPO will now remain in the applicant's bank account till the allotment is finalised, thus eliminating the refund process, SEBI said on Tuesday, addressing a long-standing grouse among investors, particularly in the retail segment.

"The modalities in this regard would be worked out separately," said a news release from SEBI, issued after its Board met on Tuesday.

"The Board approved, in principle, the concept of making lien on bank account as an alternative mode of payment in public/rights issues."

This means that the money marked for the IPO will not be used for any other payment obligation during that period.

At the same time, the applicant will enjoy the interest payable on the amount.

This would also reduce the burden on registrars and merchant bankers. But bankers to the issue can no longer enjoy the floating interest, said officials associated with the IPO process.

Most important of all, investors would not have to wait for their refund money. It also ensures that a liquidity crisis such as that of January 2008 does not occur again.

At that time, many investors were unable to buy scrips which were at attractive lows, as their money was locked up in the Reliance Power and the Future Capital IPOs. Nor could they meet their margin money requirements.

PMs – NO POOLING

The SEBI Board also decided to disallow the pooling of investors' money by portfolio managers.

"Portfolio managers should not float a scheme or pool the resources of the client in a way which is akin to mutual fund activity," said SEBI.

They have been allowed six months' time to convert their operations managed on pooled basis to individual basis.

The Board also decided to enhance the minimum net worth requirement for registration of portfolio managers from the existing Rs 50 lakh to Rs 2 crore in a phased manner.

via BL

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Gokul Refoils and Solvent IPO Analysis

Promoted by Balvantsinh Rajput, Kanubhai Thakkar, Mrs. Bhikiben Rajput and Mrs. Manjulaben Thakkar in 1982, Gokul Refoils and Solvent extracts solvents; refines edible oils, castor oils and their derivatives; and manufactures vanaspati.

Besides 680-tonne-per-day (tpd) seed-processing capacity, Gokul Refoil and Solvent has 600- tpd of solvent-extraction, 1,200-tpd of refining, and 200-tpd of vanaspati manufacturing facility. The company gets captive power from four windmills of 1.25 MW each in Kutch, Gujarat. It has also set up a co-generation power plant of 500 KWH at its Gandhidham unit in Gujarat.

To expand the scale of operations and have a global presence, Gokul Refoils and Solvent has set up two wholly owned subsidiaries in Mauritius and Singapore: Maurigo International Ltd and Maurigo Pte Ltd. The Mauritius subsidiary, Maurigo International, is involved in commodity trade on the Chicago Board of Trade and the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (MDEX),Kula Lumpur, Malaysia. The Singapore subsidiary, Maurigo Pte, procures raw material and trades in commodity. Its strategic presence in Singapore enables it to locally negotiate and deal with the small and fragmented oil suppliers of Malaysia and Indonesia, which will enable the company to procure raw materials at reasonable terms.

Products are marketed under the brand name, Gokul, in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab.

Gokul Overseas is a partnership firm manufacturing and processing castor seeds and oil and their derivatives with plant at the Kandla Special Economic Zone (KASEZ). This partnership firm has reported sales of Rs 205 crore and net earning of Rs 8.59 crore in the financial year ending March 2007 (FY 2007).

Consolidated net sales stood at Rs 1323.20 crore and Rs 1563.46 crore in the eight months ended November 2007 and FY 2007. Operating profit margin (OPM) was 6.5% and 3.8%, and net profit Rs 41.83 crore and Rs 25.73 crore.

Standalone net sales stood at Rs 1309.28 crore and Rs 1562.49 crore in the eight months ended November 2007 and FY 2007. OPM was 6.3% and 3.9%, and net profit Rs 37.82 crore and Rs 26.94 crore.

A soya processing plant, with installed capacity of 1500 tpd and capital investment of Rs 51 crore, is proposed at Gandhidham, Gujarat. The existing edible oil refinery at Surat is being expanded to 400 tpd from 100 tpd, with an estimated outlay of Rs 12.31 crore. About Rs 15 crore is to be invested in brand building, Rs 10 crore to increase the warehousing capacity and meet other capital expenditure at existing units, and Rs 60.69 crore to fund part of long-term working capital. Rs 139.59 crore is to be raised at the cap price of the price band, and Rs 38.25 crore will be taken on loan from banks.

Strengths

Versatile manufacturing capabilities, giving extreme flexibility to manufacture all type of oils depending on the market requirement and availability of raw materials at competitive rates.

Weakness

Earnings are vulnerable to changes in the duty differential between crude and refined oil.

The business is characterised by inherently low margin.

Has negative cash flow fof Rs 5.39 crore from operating activity in FY 2007, Rs 21.18 crore in FY 2006 and Rs 18.91 crore in FY 2004.

Primarily present in the bulk market, where there are strong competitive pressures from the unorganised segment.

Valuation

Gokul Refoils and Solvent has set a price band of Rs 175 to Rs 195 per equity share of Rs 10 face value. At the lower band of Rs 175 per share, the P/E would be 7.4x times annualised EPS of Rs 23.8 for the November 2007 ended period and 17.9x times the EPS of Rs 9.8 for FY 2007 on post-issue equity of Rs 26.38 crore. At the upper band of Rs 195 per share, the P/E would be 8.2x times and 19.9x times respectively. In the edible oil industry, the comparable companies such as Ruchi Soya Industries, Gujarat Ambuja Exports, and K S oils have TTM P/E of around 12.6, 9.3 and 21.3, respectively.

via CM

Monday, May 5, 2008

Grey Market - Gokul Refoils, Aishwarya Telecom

 Aishwarya Telecom 35 10 to 12


Gokul Refoils 175 to 195 15 to 17

Friday, April 4, 2008

Grey Market Premiums

 Sita Shree Food Products 0 8 to 12


Titagarh Wagons Ltd. 540 12 to 15


Kiri Dyes & Chemicals 150 12 to 15

Monday, March 31, 2008

No fun subscribing to IPOs this season..

Investors have lost around quarter of the amount raised by 18 IPOs this calendar year as 13 of them are trading below their issue prices, a top Finance Ministry official said on Saturday.

"Out of the 18 IPOs launched in 2008, 13 were trading at a discount last week implying losses to investors of about a quarter of the total IPO amount. I think, it must be larger today," Finance Secretary D Subbarao said at a seminar on Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules here.

If the situation continues, it would be increasingly difficult for corporates to raise money from the capital market, he said.

The Finance Secretary attributed weak sentiment in the market to increasing risk-aversion among investors. "The stock market provided 15 billion dollars in 2007 to support investments of firms. But, as global risk aversion has risen in the past few months, this has dented investors sentiments in India too," he added.

Of the total IPOs listed on stock exchanges this year, 11 companies had an issue price above Rs 100. The aggressive pricing of the IPOs have led the companies to lose substantially being unable to sustain the prices in long-term.

In fact, reliance power launched with much fanfare, closed at Rs 372.50 on the opening day, much below its offer price of Rs 450 a share, forcing the company to issue three bonus shares for every five held by non-promoters.

However, state-run rural electrification corporation was trading higher at Rs 109.05 against its issue price of Rs 105 and GSS America at Rs 640.85 against an issue price of Rs 400.

The bearish sentiments in the market has led to 13 firms witnessing red in the market. The Sensex, which opened above 20,300 points in January, has dipped 4,000 points to about 16,400 points since then till yesterday.

IPOs go bust

The recent crash and subsequent volatility in the stock market has adversely affected IPO plans of India Inc. As many as 20 companies, which were planning to collectively raise Rs37.18bn have already deferred their IPOs. These companies are already holding approval from capital market regulator SEBI and are now waiting for better times to enter the market. This is as per the study done jointly by ASSOCHAM and Prime Database. These 20 companies include among others Acme Tele Power, Pride Hotels, Prince Foundations, Vascon Engineers and Xenitis Infotech.

"Plans of another 44 IPOs, collectively planning to raise Rs310bn, which are presently awaiting SEBI approval, may also be hit until the markets recover. These include the IPOs of Ashoka Buildcon, DB Corp, Future Ventures, Jaiprakash Power Ventures, JSW Energy, Mahindra Holidays, NHPC, Oil India and Reliance Infratel," says Prithvi Haldea, Co-Chairman of the Capital Markets Committee of ASSOCHAM. Haldea, however, adds that some of these 64 pending IPOs might still go ahead with their plans, though at reduced valuations, even in the present market conditions.

It may be mentioned here that at the beginning of the year, ASSOCHAM and Prime Database had estimated that, subject to stable secondary market conditions, the calendar 2008 would have seen mobilization of nearly Rs600bn through IPOs. The first three months of the year have seen 17 IPOs, totaling Rs149bn, and this amount may have been larger but for the crash in the secondary market in later part of January.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Gammon Infrastructure, Titagarh Wagons Grey Market

 Gammon Infra 167 5 to 8


Sita Shree Food Pro 30 4 to 7


Titagarh Wagons Ltd. 540 to 610 20 to 25


Kiri Dyes & Chemicals 125 to 150 10 to 12

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Titagarh Wagons IPO review

 Titagarh Wagons is well positioned to benefit from the demand in the logistics space.

Kolkata-based Titagarh Wagons, a private sector manufacturer of railway wagons, is setting up a manufacturing centre to make electric multiple units (EMUs) and expanding its existing facilities at a cost of Rs 70 crore.

To fund its expansion as well as meet corporate expenses the company aims to raise Rs 111- Rs 126 crore through the IPO route, with each share priced between Rs 540 (lower band) and Rs 610 (higher band).

While the company has wagons, special projects and heavy earth moving and mining equipment divisions, over 80 per cent of its revenues accrue from the wagons division.

Rising freight demand
The opening up of India's container movement to private players (in 2006) as well as the move to allow corporates to invest in wagons (in 2005) has opened up the erstwhile Indian Railways monopolies.

With a large number of logistics service providers and manufacturers jumping into the fray, this nascent segment is expected to take off.

In 2004-05, freight handled was pegged at 6,000 lakh tones, while that for FY08 is estimated at 7,850 lakh tonnes. This is expected to move up further to 11,000 lakh tonne by the end of the 11th five-year plan in 2012.

Indian Railways plans to double its wagon purchase order from the estimated 10,200 wagons for the current fiscal to 20,000 wagons for FY09. This translates into a steady demand for players such as Titagarh Wagons, which along with nine other public, private and joint sector companies are eyeing the Rs 15,000 crore wagons market.

While the company is planning to expand its share in wagons, it is also targeting niche applications. It has tied up with US-based FreightCar America to manufacture aluminium coal hopper wagons and other wagon products.

Passenger segment
The company is also planning to expand its EMU production to cater to the passenger car and metro rail requirements of the railways. The unit to be set up at the Uttarpara facility in West Bengal will manufacture 24 rakes per annum with each rake consisting of nine EMU coaches.

The company has received an order for supply of 9-car rake from Indian Railways and hopes to expand its presence in the sector once its Uttarpara facility is completed by December 2008.

In addition to the EMU facility, the company wants to set up an axle machining and wheelset assembly unit with an annual capacity of 10,000-12,000 wheelsets.

The expansion will allow Titagarh Wagons to integrate backwards and reduce dependency on Indian and foreign suppliers.

With only two Indian manufacturers of wheelsets, which constitute 35 per cent of a wagon's selling price, and continued increase in prices over the last two fiscals due to global shortage, Titagarh's move to backward integrate makes sense.

Special projects/euipment segment
The special projects business, which contributes 11 per cent to total revenues, makes modular bridges, equipment for nuclear power plants and special purpose wagons for the defence sector.

Defence equipment sales to Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) have increased from 1.6 per cent in FY07 to 4.4 per cent in the first half of FY08.

The heavy earth moving and mining equipment division manufactures hydraulic excavators, cranes and forklifts and accounts for 5 per cent of revenues. To ramp up its facilities and improve cost efficiencies in the equipment division, the company plans to invest Rs 4 crore.

Healthy order book
The company's order book as on January 31, 2008 stands at Rs 753 crore, which is over 2.5 times its FY07 revenues. Of this, 90 per cent is accounted for by wagons and EMU sales.

Though Indian Railways continues to be Titagarh's single largest customer, its share of revenues and wagon sales is declining. While Indian Railways' share in Titagarh Wagons' total revenues has come down from 61 per cent in 2005 to 11 per cent in FY2007, its share of wagon sales has also declined from 75 per cent to 49 per cent in the same period.

Strategic moves
Over the last nine months, two strategic investors--GE Capital International and JP Morgan have bought 15.5 per cent (August, 2007) and 5 per cent stakes (January 2008) in the company at Rs 509 per share and Rs 610 share, respectively.

The vendor financing agreement with GE Equipment Services on May 2007 will help Titagarh's customers finance their wagon purchases. JP Morgan, on the other hand, is helping Titagarh Wagons acquire a majority stake in Cimmco Birla. JP Morgan owns a significant portion of Cimmco Birla's debt.

As part of the restructuring programme, Titagarh will be investing Rs 35 crore in Cimmco for a 51 per cent stake. This acquisition is expected to double Titagarh Wagons' current manufacturing capacity of 5,000 wagons per year.

nvestment rationale
With rising demand from corporates such as Adani Ports, Hind Terminals and logistics service providers, replacement and new wagon requirement of Indian Railways and the cost advantage for rail transport over road, the macroeconomic outlook for the logistics sector manufacturers and service providers looks bright.

While there are 10 players in the wagon manufacturing space, competition for Titagarh Wagons comes from Texmaco. Going by Titagarh's half-year FY08 numbers, with revenues at Rs 211 crore and a bulging order book, revenues should top Rs 350 crore in FY08.

If the company is able to maintain its 20 per cent operating margins and 12 per cent net profit margins in future, the stock is available at 17 times FY09 earnings of Rs 36.93 at the higher end of the band and 15 times at the lower end.

While Texmaco trades at a premium of 20 times its FY09 earnings of Rs 85 due to its leadership position, Titagarh could bridge the gap thanks to its growth prospects and higher operating margins, and at this price can fetch good returns over the short- to medium-term.

Issue opens: March 24
Issue closes: March 27

Titagarh Wagons IPO Analysis

Investments with a two-three year perspective can be considered in the initial public offering of Titagarh Wagons (TWL). Our optimism stems from the opening up of business opportunities in the rail sector by way of setting up of dedicated freight corridors, participation of private players in rail logistics and the introduction of the wagon leasing scheme.

Titagarh Wagons appears well placed to ride this growing demand for wagons, given its established relationship with the Indian Railways (IR). At the price band of Rs 540-610, the stock is valued at about 15-17 times its likely FY-09 per share earnings on a diluted equity base. This is at a marginal discount to Texmaco, which trades at about 17 times its likely FY-09 per share earnings. This discount is justified as Texmaco commands a higher share in wagon supplies and has a more diversified business mix. Growth prospects notwithstanding, we would be more comfortable if the offer were priced at the lower end of the price band.
Railways, demand booster

The demand for wagons is set to increase given the Railways' renewed focus on increasing its share of freight traffic. This is reflected in the latest Rail Budget, which aims to procure an all-time high of about 20,000 wagons for the coming year. While railway orders are generally procured only through an open tendering process, TWL's already established relationship with the Railways and the expansion and de-bottlenecking of present capacities may lend it greater credence. Besides, TWL's proposed entry into EMU (electric multiple unit) may also expand its potential market. It plans to invest about Rs 19 crore to set up the EMU unit, which will have the capacity to manufacture two rakes (nine EMU coaches) per month.

Revenue contribution from the Railways, one of TWL's largest customers, has reduced over the years, despite an increase in the supply of wagons. This is because the Railways typically provides a bulk of raw materials as 'free supply' items to wagon manufacturers.

While this may dwarf the Railways' contribution to wagon manufacturers' revenue pie, Railway orders yield higher margin and provide greater flexibility in working-capital management. With a likely ramp up in Railway orders in TWL's books, the latter may enjoy greater operational freedom.
Private participation

Entry of 14 new private players in container rail logistics is also likely to keep the demand for wagons strong. Since these players are required to invest in their own wagons, the introduction of wagon leasing policy and investment scheme offers support.

The wagon investment scheme provides a 10 per cent rebate on normal freight charges to wagon owners and a guaranteed supply of rakes every month. The wagon-leasing scheme, on the contrary, allows third-parties to invest in wagons and lease them. These schemes, introduced to attract more private participation, may help keep the order books of domestic wagon manufacturers buoyant.
Strategic sourcing of components

TWL's proposal to set up an axle machining and wheel set assembling plant appears strategic, given the supply constraints of domestic railways-approved wheel set manufacturers. With an investment of about Rs 13 crore, TWL plans to set up a unit to assemble wheel sets through procurement of loose machined-wheels and axles from global suppliers. This unit, which will have the capacity to assemble over 10,000-12,000 wheel sets annually, will give TWL better control over its cost and greater operational continuity.
Financials

TWL witnessed a compounded earnings growth of about 74 per cent during the last four years on the back of 57 per cent growth in revenues. Operating margins have also expanded from over 10 per cent in FY-03 to the current levels of about 17 per cent. Its order-book of about Rs 750 crore, with Rs 670 crore for the rolling stock division, also reflects the strengthening demand scenario.

However, since IR fixes the price of wagons on the basis of the lowest bid (L1) it receives, there is little scope for a drastic improvement in TWL's realisations. This may be compensated by way of expansion in margins, considering the likely ramp up in IR orders and its backward integration initiatives.

Going forward, we expect the bulk of revenue growth to come from TWL's wagon manufacturing division only. While its casting division may help on the margin front, the HEMM (heavy earth moving and mining equipment) division may take a couple of years to make significant earnings contribution.
Offer details

The offer is open from March 24-27. Kotak Investment Banking is the book running lead manager. The company plans to raise about Rs 126 crore through a combination of fresh issue of shares and offer for sale by the promoters.

Titagarh Wagons IPO Analysis

Investments with a two-three year perspective can be considered in the initial public offering of Titagarh Wagons (TWL). Our optimism stems from the opening up of business opportunities in the rail sector by way of setting up of dedicated freight corridors, participation of private players in rail logistics and the introduction of the wagon leasing scheme.

Titagarh Wagons appears well placed to ride this growing demand for wagons, given its established relationship with the Indian Railways (IR). At the price band of Rs 540-610, the stock is valued at about 15-17 times its likely FY-09 per share earnings on a diluted equity base. This is at a marginal discount to Texmaco, which trades at about 17 times its likely FY-09 per share earnings. This discount is justified as Texmaco commands a higher share in wagon supplies and has a more diversified business mix. Growth prospects notwithstanding, we would be more comfortable if the offer were priced at the lower end of the price band.
Railways, demand booster

The demand for wagons is set to increase given the Railways' renewed focus on increasing its share of freight traffic. This is reflected in the latest Rail Budget, which aims to procure an all-time high of about 20,000 wagons for the coming year. While railway orders are generally procured only through an open tendering process, TWL's already established relationship with the Railways and the expansion and de-bottlenecking of present capacities may lend it greater credence. Besides, TWL's proposed entry into EMU (electric multiple unit) may also expand its potential market. It plans to invest about Rs 19 crore to set up the EMU unit, which will have the capacity to manufacture two rakes (nine EMU coaches) per month.

Revenue contribution from the Railways, one of TWL's largest customers, has reduced over the years, despite an increase in the supply of wagons. This is because the Railways typically provides a bulk of raw materials as 'free supply' items to wagon manufacturers.

While this may dwarf the Railways' contribution to wagon manufacturers' revenue pie, Railway orders yield higher margin and provide greater flexibility in working-capital management. With a likely ramp up in Railway orders in TWL's books, the latter may enjoy greater operational freedom.
Private participation

Entry of 14 new private players in container rail logistics is also likely to keep the demand for wagons strong. Since these players are required to invest in their own wagons, the introduction of wagon leasing policy and investment scheme offers support.

The wagon investment scheme provides a 10 per cent rebate on normal freight charges to wagon owners and a guaranteed supply of rakes every month. The wagon-leasing scheme, on the contrary, allows third-parties to invest in wagons and lease them. These schemes, introduced to attract more private participation, may help keep the order books of domestic wagon manufacturers buoyant.
Strategic sourcing of components

TWL's proposal to set up an axle machining and wheel set assembling plant appears strategic, given the supply constraints of domestic railways-approved wheel set manufacturers. With an investment of about Rs 13 crore, TWL plans to set up a unit to assemble wheel sets through procurement of loose machined-wheels and axles from global suppliers. This unit, which will have the capacity to assemble over 10,000-12,000 wheel sets annually, will give TWL better control over its cost and greater operational continuity.
Financials

TWL witnessed a compounded earnings growth of about 74 per cent during the last four years on the back of 57 per cent growth in revenues. Operating margins have also expanded from over 10 per cent in FY-03 to the current levels of about 17 per cent. Its order-book of about Rs 750 crore, with Rs 670 crore for the rolling stock division, also reflects the strengthening demand scenario.

However, since IR fixes the price of wagons on the basis of the lowest bid (L1) it receives, there is little scope for a drastic improvement in TWL's realisations. This may be compensated by way of expansion in margins, considering the likely ramp up in IR orders and its backward integration initiatives.

Going forward, we expect the bulk of revenue growth to come from TWL's wagon manufacturing division only. While its casting division may help on the margin front, the HEMM (heavy earth moving and mining equipment) division may take a couple of years to make significant earnings contribution.
Offer details

The offer is open from March 24-27. Kotak Investment Banking is the book running lead manager. The company plans to raise about Rs 126 crore through a combination of fresh issue of shares and offer for sale by the promoters.

IPOs - not profitable always

Investors who subscribed to the initial public offer, in the first quarter of 2006, of shares by Sadbhav Engineering are a fortunate lot. Against an investment of Rs 185, the stock closed at Rs 1,080 on Wednesday, an appreciation of more than five-fold in the space of just two years.

So, is investing in initial public offerings (IPO) a safe bet? The answer is no, if we go by the performance of the IPOs of the last two years. Actually there is one in two chance that you wouldn't have made any money at all. According to data available on NSE Web site, around 181 companies had come out with IPOs to raise money since the commencement of the bull-run that began in early 2006. Of these, about 50 per cent – 92 stocks to be precise – are quoting below the issue price. Seventy companies approached the market for funds in 2006. The number increased to 89 in 2007 and it is 13 in the year to date.

IPOs have been punished across sectors and irrespective of the subscription levels. For instance, shares of companies as diverse as Reliance Power, Future Capital, MindTree Consulting and Sobha Developers which had evoked strong response from investors at the time of initial placement are currently ruling below their issue prices. Even ICICI Bank which came out with a follow-on public issue at Rs 940 is currently quoting well below that price.

A Mumbai-based broker said: "When a stock first starts trading, its price moves up to higher level on pent-up demand. Investor demand is often unusually heavy due to the hype surrounding an IPO, particularly for high-profile companies."

But even among those that did not evoke a frenzy in the run-up to the IPO on the scale of Reliance Power, there have been significant losers. Uttam Sugar Mills (81 per cent), Broadcast Initiatives (80 per cent) and Raj Rayon (79 per cent) are some of the companies that registered major losses.

For investors, the sentiment had turned so adverse in recent times towards any fresh commitment that many companies were forced to withdraw their IPO plans. Among the few that postponed their plans for mobilisation of capital from the public included such high-profile issues as Emaar MGF and Wockhardt Hospitals.

But there have been a few notable exceptions among the IPO stocks besides Sadbhav Engineering that have emerged unscathed despite the Sensex losing 6,000 points in just two months. Though they have declined from their peaks, are still quoting higher than the offer price even while the market has been under a strong bear hug. MIC Electronics is one such. As against the issue price of Rs 150, the share closed at Rs 703.7 on Wednesday, a return of 369 per cent over cost.

According to analysts, investing in IPOs is also as risky as investing in secondary markets. Investors must go beyond the allure and hype of IPOs and educate themselves about the company's fundamentals, they said.

Via Businessline

Gammon Infrastructure, Sita Shree Food Products, Titagarh Wagons, Kiri Dyes and Chemicals

 Gammon Infra 167 10 to 12


Sita Shree Food Pro. 30 6 to 8


Titagarh Wagons Ltd. 540 to 610 50 to 60


Kiri Dyes & Chemicals 125 to 150 12 to 15

Kiri Dyes and Chemicals IPO Analysis

Kiri Dyes and Chemicals manufactures reactive dyes and dye intermediates. Promoted by Pravin A. Kiri and incorporated on 14 May 1998, the company's production plant is located in Gujarat: three units in Ahmedabad and one unit in Vadodara.

The product range comprises more than 120 dyestuffs used by textiles, leather, paints and printing-ink industries. Production capacity totals10,800 tonnes per annum. Integrating backward, Kiri Dyes and Chemicals commenced manufacturing vinyl sulphone (VS) in April 2006, with a capacity of 3,600 tonnes, and H-acid from March 2007, with capacity of 3,600 tonnes, giving it a presence in the dye intermediate business.

With plans for further backward integration, the IPO is to fund capital expenditure to set up a plant to manufacture sulphuric acid, oleum and chloro sulphonic acid, with a combined capacity of 1,80,000 tonnes, and a dyes and intermediates unit. A 2.9-MW power plant that can run from the steam generated by the sulphuric acid plant is also on the anvil. The electricity generated will be sufficient not only to run the sulphuric acid plant but also the intermediate plants of VS and H-Acid.

Following the expansion, the capacity to manufacture sulphuric acid will be 1, 00,000 tonnes, oleum 43,200 tonnes and chlorosulphonoic acid 36,000. The plant to manufacture sulphuric acid and its sub-products is to be completed by December 2008. Around 25% of the capacity of sulphuric acid, oleum and chlorosulphonic acid will be used to produce dye-intermediates: H-Acid and V.S. The remaining produce will be marketed directly to bulk end-users in the detergent and chemical industry and other large consumers.

The capacity to produce dyestuff will be increased 3,000 tonnes to 15,000 tonnes by the fiscal ending March 2010 (FY 2010). The capacity to manufacture dyes intermediates VS will become 4,200 tonnes in FY 2009 and then further increase to 4,800 tonnes in FY 2010. The capacity to produce H-acid will increase to 4,200 tonnes in FY 2010.

Kiri Dyes and Chemicals entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Zhejiang Lonsen Group on 1 November 2007 to establish a manufacturing facility in India to produce reactive dyes. Both the parties have agreed to start with a production capacity of 20,000 tonnes of reactive dyes and to increase it further to 50,000 tonnes when the opportunity arises after successfully implementation and operations of the initial production capacity. The new plant is to be set up by end 2008. The initial capital investment would be US $ 10 million. Of this, Lonsen is to invest US $ 6 million and Kiri Dyes and Chemicals US $ 4 million to establish a new manufacturing plant in India.

Strengths:

  1. Stringent environmental laws in the western countries have led to discontinuance of production of certain dyes for textiles and leather. This has led to shift in manufacturing capacity from the US and the European Union to South East Asia. Climatic conditions in India are favourable for the manufacture of such products. Also, the new usage of dyestuffs in electronic, high-tech printing, and bio medical applications augurs well for the high-valued dyestuff products.
  2. Backward integration and JV with global giants will help to save cost and strengthen research and development facility.

Weaknesses:

  1. Operates in a highly competitive and unorganised business environment with many big and small players exporting and manufacturing dye and dyestuff. The increased competitive pressure may adversely affect margin.
  2. Had negative cash flows of Rs. 4.88 crore and Rs.9.42 crore from operating income in FY 2007 and FY 2006.
  3. Currently paying MAT (minimum alternate tax) on account of benefits of exemption received under Section 10 B of the Income-Tax Act, 1961, as it is a 100% export-oriented unit (EOU). This status will expire in March 2010. The withdrawal of tax incentives would increase the tax liability and adversely impact profitability.

Valuation

At a price band of Rs 125-Rs 150, the P/E works out to 10.5-12.6 times on half-yearly annualised EPS of Rs 11.9 on post-issue equity of Rs 15 crore, The average TTM P/E for dyes and pigment industry is around 6.

Titagarh Wagons IPO Analysis

Promoted by J P Chowdhary and his family, Titagarh Wagons (TWL) is one of the leading manufacturers of railway wagons. The company also manufactures bailey bridges, heavy earth moving and mining equipment (HEMM). It is an approved and registered supplier with the Ministry of Defence, supplying bailey bridges and wagons.

Incorporated in 1997, TWL purchased land and machinery from Titagarh Steels (now Titagarh Industries, a listed promoter group company) in 1998 to set up a wagon manufacturing unit at Titagarh. In 2005, it acquired the loss-making Heavy Earth Moving equipment division of Hyderabad Industries at Uttarpara, West Bengal.

The wagon manufacturing business of the company primarily caters to Indian Railways. Its clients also include Container Corporation of India (Concor), National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC), Wagon Investment Scheme (WIS) customers and private container transport players. The current wagon-manufacturing capacity at both Titagarh and Uttarpara aggregates 5,000 numbers of railway wagons. Product range of railway wagons consists of wagons meant for carrying and discharge of coal and ballasts, wagons for transport of cement, food grains, coal, iron ore, stone and containers, and specialised wagons such as merry go round (MGR). On 22 January 2008, the company entered into a joint venture (JV) agreement with FreightCar America Inc to jointly promote and incorporate a private limited company to develop, design, manufacture, service and distribute railcars and other wagon products. The wagon division accounted for a lion's share of 78.9% and 83.7% of the total income of the company for the fiscal ended March 20'07 (FY 2007) and six month ended September 2007.

Acquisition of the Uttarpara unit from Hyderabad Industries in 2005, apart from augmenting its wagon capacity, and addition of earth-moving and mining equipment into the product portfolio has also facilitated backward integration into steel forgings required to manufacture wagon. The Uttarpara unit consists of a 5,000-tonne steel foundry, and a machine and a fabrication shop. TWL has the capability to manufacture various types of hydraulic excavators ranging from one cubic meter to 14 cubic meters and crawler cranes with capacity varying from 75 tonnes to 92 tonnes. With an installed capacity to manufacture 50 equipments per annum, the HEMM division contributed about 4.8% and 5% of the total income in FY 2007 and six months ended September 2007.

In 2007, TWL entered into a tie-up with JP Morgan Mauritius Holdings to propose a scheme to revive and rehabilitate Cimmco Birla to the Board of Industrial and Financial Reconstruction (BIFR). Cimmco Birla has a wagon-manufacturing unit in Rajasthan.

The proceeds from issue of new shares to fund the capex to set up an electric multiple units (EMU)-manufacturing unit, expand and modernise existing units, establish axle and wheel-set unit at Uttarpara, and build a new corporate office and for strategic acquisition. The setting up of the EMU unit and modernisation of the existing units are expected to be completed by FY 2009.

Strength

Order book stood at Rs 753. 11 crore end Janaury 2008. Current order book translates into 2.7 times FY 2007 revenue, lending revenue visibility. Order book also consists of order for manufacture and supply of nine car rakes of EMU from Indian Railway, depicting the successful foray into passenger EMU vehicles.

Though Indian Railways continues to be a significant customer, the business of wagons to non-railway clients is growing with the entry of private players in container movement through railway, ending Concor's monopoly along with schemes such as wagon investment scheme. Moreover, economic growth provides strong support. Sales of wagons to non–railway clients and their share in total revenue by value increased to 68.26% in FY 2007 compared with nil in FY 20'04. This results in better utilisation of capacity and insulation to a large extent from the risk of delay in placement of orders or delivery of free items by Indian Railways.

Orders placed by Indian Railways usually include free supply of materials of high value such as steel, bogies and wheel sets. There is a price-escalation clause linked to the wholesale price index (WPI) for labour, thus insulating margin. Similarly, orders from public sector undertakings (PSUs) such as Concor and NTPC also have price- escalation clause for iron and steel and labour linked to the WPI.

Weakness

Has to source Dispatch Memo (DM) components from Research and Development Standard Organisation (RDSO)- approved vendors. There are global supply constraints for wheel sets. Thus, operation/ production of wagons depends on supply of critical components. Penalty has to be paid for missed delivery schedule.

In addition to the bogies and couplers manufactured at the Uttarpara foundry unit, not running to its full capacity, these components are procured from Titagarh Industries, a group company, resulting in clash of interest.

Titagarh Industries (formerly Titagarh Steel (TSL)), one of the promoter-group company, along with its directors was declared a willful defaulter by the Reserve Bank of India.. Subsequent to a one-time settlement, it was removed from the list in 2007.

Propose to invest Rs 35 crore in Cimmco Birla, a company under BIFR scheme of revival and rehabilitation, subject to necessary approvals from BIFR. Signed an agreement with JP Morgan to propose a joint revival scheme. Though the takeover of Cimmco Birla brings additional wagon-manufacturing capacity, specially at a different geographical location in Rajasthan, the ability to successfully turn around it has to be seen as quite a few promoter group companies are in the red.

The share of Indian Railways by value in total revenue has come down to about 10%. But in terms of volume it is significant. Any delay in placement of orders may hit operations and margin.

Valuation

The first-half (ended September 2007) annualised EPS works out to Rs 28.2. On the offer-price band of Rs 540-Rs 610, the PE works out to 19.1 times at the lower price band and 21.6 times at the upper price band. In comparison, peer player Texmaco quotes at a PE of 27.6 times its first-half annualised standalone earning.



Via CM

Sunday, March 9, 2008

FIIs sell IPOs on listing

If you have tracked book-built initial public offers on the stock exchange Web sites, you would have noticed that retail investors typically rush in at the last hour.

This is because most lay investors are looking out for the subscription numbers for the QIB (Qualified Institutional Bidders) portion of the IPO, especially of FIIs, before they decide to take the leap.

Retail investors often rely on the extent of over-subscription in the QIB portion when deciding to invest or refrain from IPOs. This is built on the premise that FIIs have a much better understanding of new businesses or untested business models when it comes to evaluating IPOs.

Now for the detour. What if the big guys you were tracking were in the issue for the short term? What if they flipped on listing day itself, after securing the much-sought-after allotment?

Business Line looked up large transactions (bulk and block deals) that occurred on both the BSE and the NSE platforms for the 35 IPOs listed from mid-October. The evidence of institutional investors making a short-term profit on the day of listing (known commonly as 'flipping') was strong.

Of the 62 transactions (both buy and sell) that occurred on the listing days, 34 were "sell" trades. Of these, institutional investors exited the stock with substantial profits on 25 occasions.

The numbers may be small but the trend reveals that FIIs too have not been averse to taking a short-term view with their IPO investments.
Cashing in

Mauritius-based investment firms or arms of well-known investment banks feature prominently on the list of investors that made a killing on listing.

Right from BSMA (affiliate of Bear Stearns), Mavi Investment Fund (sub-account of Switzerland-based M.M. Warburg Bank) to less known entities such as Prime India Investment Fund, ITF Mauritius, Amas India Investments; all have been regular investors in IPOs, who have taken profits on listing.

Could it be the overall market mood that caused FIIs to rush in on the day of listing and cash in on their profits? Maybe not. True, the Sensex lost around 22 per cent in value since the first week of January, with many volatile ups and downs in between. However, even through this period, FIIs did keep up steady buying in shares of companies such as Maytas Infrastructure, Edelweiss Capital, Consolidated Construction Consortium (CCCL) and BGR Energy Systems, on Day One.

When it comes to a fancy for newly listed stocks, FIIs do not seem to be very different from the small investor.

Just as a small investor would try to buy shares in the secondary market for a company in whose IPO he/she did not get allotment, foreign investors too seem to follow this practice. This may partly explain the bulk deals in Maytas, Edelweiss, CCCL and BGR, whose issues were oversubscribed over 50 times during their IPOs!
Taking chances

What about other constituents of the QIB group who are allocated around 50-60 per cent of a company's net issue? Apart from FIIs, mutual funds and financial institutions, insurance companies also are included in this list.

An analysis of the reported transactions shows that domestic mutual funds have not engaged in 'flipping', as much as the foreign investors. They feature prominently in the buyers list on the day of listing, with funds such as JM Financial, Franklin Templeton MF, ICICI Prudential and HDFC MF actively engaged in buying shares.

India's largest bank, the State Bank of India, also seems to be a participant in the IPO segment, making quick gains with investments in IPOs of Barak Valley Cements and Renaissance Jewellery.

But could it happen that daily market movements too influence these deep-pocketed investors? They do not, as an analysis for the October-February period shows. 'Sell' transactions in IPO stocks were roughly the same in number whether the Sensex finished lower or higher on listing day.

While most transactions by institutions on listing day appeared to be motivated by the chance to make quick gains, a few also helped limit the downside. DB International, India Diversified Mauritius, Ultra India Mauritius, Deutsche International and Elara India Opportunities were some institutional sellers on day one, in stocks such as Empee Distilleries, KNR Constructions and Bang Overseas.

Their move to exit was well-timed, as each of these IPOs lost as much as 20 per cent on listing day. Cords Cable Industries was among the exceptions, which managed to close at a 3 per cent premium after listing at a discount.
What's in it for you

Many small investors take cues from strong QIB subscription numbers to subscribe to and project listing gains on IPOs.

Strong institutional interest during an IPO is taken as a sign that the stock may attract buying post-listing. However, if above trends are any evidence, it is possible that institutional investors too (at least a few of them) are in the game for the short term.

Remember the hype surrounding Reliance Power IPO? Overall, the IPO was oversubscribed 62 times, while the QIB portion was over-subscribed a massive 83 times. But the stock still closed Day One well below its offer price.

Although there is no record of bulk/block deals related to the Reliance Power stock on listing day, one must remember that quite a bit of institutional selling may escape the "bulk deals" net, if transactions are broken into smaller trades, thus escaping notice.

Apart from 'flipping' being a risky game (refer 'Flipping your stock is a risky game', Business Line, September 30, 2007), these trends are reason to take IPO subscription numbers with a pinch of salt.

Large investors too are driven by profit motives and their mere presence in an IPO may not be a vote of confidence in the company or its long-term prospects.

Via Businessline

Sita Shree Food Products IPO Analysis

Investors can refrain from subscribing to the initial public offer from Sita Shree Food Products.The risks associated with the company's new business foray are high and may outweigh the return potential from this offer.

The company, which has been engaged in making wheat products such as atta, rava and sooji, proposes to raise Rs 31.5 crore through this book-built IPO to fund the setting up of new manufacturing facilities for soya oil and deoiled cake (500 tonnes per day) and to expand flour milling capacities (additional 275 tpd). The offer is being made in a price band of Rs 27-30, valuing the company at a stiff 24-27 times its earnings, without considering the equity expansion due to the offer.
Business

Sita Shree Foods makes wheat products which are sold mainly in bulk form. It has managed a steady ramp up in its sales from Rs 23 crore to Rs 82 crore between FY-04 and FY-07.

Operating profit margins in this business, however, have been thin, hovering in the 3 per cent range in recent years and net profits have risen from Rs 16 lakh to Rs 92 lakh over the same period.

The company has in the past been one of the suppliers to Godrej Pillsbury and Unilever and also counts retail chains such as Pantaloon Retail and Reliance Retail among its clients. Going forward, the opportunity for supplying wheat products in bulk or packaged form to retail chains may continue to expand as these players lay a greater thrust on dry groceries and private label sales.

Though the company's expansion plans for wheat products may come in handy in this respect, margins may continue to be wafer thin, given competition from much larger and unorganised players in the flour milling segment.
Risk factors

The company's foray into soya oil and soyameal business (used and exported as animal feed) comes at an opportune time, when global demand and prices for soya products are firm. Though good location advantages and the promoter's experience in commodity trading may translate into procurement advantages, the lack of scale (competitors such as Ruchi Soya and Gujarat Ambuja Exports control capacities of over a million tonnes per annum) and an overseas presence pose risks to the company's ability to find and sustain a market for its products. Though the company also plans to establish its own brands as well as a marketing network in the domestic market, it will face competition from players with much deeper pockets. The stiff pricing also pegs up the risk element.

Via BL

Grey Market - V Guard, Gammon Infrastructure, Rural Electrification

Rural Electrification 105 12 to 14


V. Guard Ind. 82 4 to 5


Gammon Infra 167 to 200 16 to 18


Sita Shree Food Pro. 27 to 30 2 to 4

Gammon Infrastructure Projects IPO Analysis

Investors can stay away from the initial public offer of Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd. (GIPL). While the company's unique positioning as a developer in the infrastructure space does provide long-term potential, the offer appears stiffly priced. At the price band of Rs 167-200, the offer values the company at 33-40 times the expected per share earnings for FY 2010. We, therefore, advocate revisiting the stock at a later date either when the secondary market offers better entry opportunities or when the company's projects under development start contributing significantly to cash flows.

There is unlikely to be significant upside in GIPL's earnings in FY 2009 as three of the seven projects under development are expected to become operational only by FY-10. The rest of the projects, mostly in the power segment, may have a longer gestation period before contributing to revenues. Besides, a number of other players in this business (not necessarily with the same business model) such as, IRB Developers and IVRCL, offer higher visibility for returns and have attractive valuations.
On the company and offer

GIPL is a holding company with subsidiaries and associates that are engaged in infrastructure project development. The company is a subsidiary of Gammon India. The parent will hold 73 per cent, post-issue. The company plans to raise Rs 270-330 crore through this offer, the proceeds of which would be invested in projects of subsidiaries and repayment of loan to the parent company. Post-issue, the market capitalisation of the company would be Rs 2,400-2,900 crore at the two ends of the price band.
Current projects

GIPL can be termed as one of the few pure infrastructure developers in the country as against a good number of players which remain part contractors. The company's operations are clearly demarcated from its parent, as all infrastructure development projects are routed through GIPL.

The company also has a diversified basket of projects ranging from roads to power and ports with substantial holding in each of these. However, only four of the 11 projects are currently operational with the rest in the development phase (excluding the SEZs).

Of the operational projects, GIPL has two annuity road projects that provide a steady stream of revenues (by way of annuity and operation and maintenance) based on fixed long-term concession agreements. However, the fixed agreement rules out any scope for significant ramp up in revenues from these projects. Income from annuity constituted 70 per cent of revenues for the six months ended September 2007.

While the third subsidiary — Cochin Bridge Project — is toll-based, the project's contribution to the revenue stream is minimal. Further, the Government has stipulated fixed toll rates, thus reducing the scope for any significant acceleration in revenues. The possibility of any surge in traffic also appears unlikely given the location of the bridge.

The fourth project — management of two berths in Visakhapatnam Port — now accounts for 12 per cent of revenues. While this subsidiary is yet to become profitable, we believe that the project holds high earnings visibility and lower risk, with favourable clauses such as take-or-pay. GIPL's stake in this project is, however, restricted to 42 per cent at present as the project is in consortium with Portia Management Services of the UK. Of the four operational projects through subsidiaries, we expect the Vizag Sea Port to be the key revenue driver.

Revenue on a consolidated basis was Rs 147 crore for FY 2007 and Rs 77 crore for the half-year ended September 2007. Consolidated net profits for the above period stood at Rs 30 crore and Rs 11 crore respectively.
Future holds potential

GIPL's more recently formed subsidiaries which have seven projects under development offer a diversified basket with toll and annuity road projects as well as hydro and bio-mass projects. Of these, the hydropower projects have longer gestation periods with operations expected to commence in FY 2011 and FY 2012. The renewable energy and container terminal projects are yet to witness financial closure and, therefore, not considered by us for valuation purposes.

The power projects could well hold potential what with a judicious mix of projects with power purchase agreements and those that can be sold as merchant power. For the biomass projects, while steady supply of raw materials such as rice straw or bagasse could be a constraint, the company is likely to be supported with good power tariffs in States such as Punjab and Haryana. Hydro and bio fuel projects hold the potential to improve the company's profitability over the long term.

Similarly, the Mumbai Offshore Container Terminal Project in which the company has a 50 per cent stake holds favourable revenue sharing and exclusivity terms. The operation and maintenance clause is yet undecided with financial closure also pending. The business per se holds potential given the extreme congestion in the Mumbai harbour. Revenue flow from this stream has to be watched before assessing profitability.
Advantage of developer model

While the infrastructure space is generally known to offer low operating and net profit margins, infrastructure development lends potential for earning superior margins. Once the initial expenditure on building the asset is complete, such projects could provide a regular/accelerated stream of revenues.

As O&M cost of such assets are also paid for by the concessionaire, the profit margins are different from what are typically derived in a construction contract. GIPL's operations currently earn margins of over 70 per cent on a consolidated basis. However, high interest costs (as each project involves significant debt-financing) can lead to more moderate net profit margins.

Though debt-free on a stand-alone basis, GIPL, on a consolidated basis, has a debt equity ratio of close to three. While the funds from the issue would strengthen the networth, the proceeds appear insignificant compared to the size of projects under implementation. Hence the subsidiaries would have to either tap debt avenues or look at further equity expansion at a later date. Such expansion over the medium term could dilute earnings, given that the payoff profiles for the company's projects are fairly long.

The offer is open from March 10-13. Retail and non-institutional investors have the option of applying through a part-payment of Rs 50.

Via Businessline